Friday Night Lights #4

HostRogers
Date05/19/2023
TypePromotional
BoatC420
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	The Prout School	Crusaders	68
2	Barrington High School	Eagles	79
3	Portsmouth High School RI	Patriots	82
4	Moses Brown School	Quakers	89
5	East Greenwich High School	Avengers	112
6	Rogers High School	Vikings	139
7	Warriors	Warriors	146
8	Islanders	Islanders	148
9	Skippers	Skippers	179
10	Purple	Purple	218

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Barrington High School	Eagles A	1	2	2	1	4	1	11	Christopher Chwalk '24 Avery Guck '24
Moses Brown School	Quakers A	3	1	1	2	2	3	12	Noah Hemingway '23 Brooke Kelley '24
The Prout School	Crusaders A	2	5	5	5	6	9	32	Jake Demos '23 [1-2, 5-6] Claire Lewis '23 [3-4] Carter Sheehan '23 [1-2, 5-6] Lizzie Rak '27 [3-4]
Portsmouth High School RI	Patriots A	7	7	7	4	3	7	35	Henry Steadman '24 [1-2] James Hacket '26 [3-4] Ava Mcdermott '26 [5-6] Matthew Defalco '27 [1-2] Cameron Davis '26 [3-4] Cole Hughes '24 [5-6]
The Prout School	Crusaders B	6	9	9	9	1	2	36	Aurora Meunier Mott '24 [1-2, 5-6] Carter Sheehan '23 [3-4] Ebby Demos '26 [1-2] Cathryn Mcquesten '26 [3-4] Lizzie Rak '27 [5-6]
Warriors	Warriors B	4	6	6	7	8	8	39
Rogers High School	Vikings A	8	4	4	10	15	4	45	Andrew Goodburn '24 [1-2, 5-6] Morgan Spring '25 [3-4] Mia Hanson '26 [1-2] Matthew Mullins '23 [3-4] Morgan Spring '25 [5-6]
Portsmouth High School RI	Patriots B	9	3	3	6	14	12	47	Nehuel Armenanzas '25 [1-4] Leo Burnham '25 [5-6] Hanalei Streuli '26 [1-4] Tyler Butler '25 [5-6]
East Greenwich High School	Avengers B	5	13	13	8	5	6	50	Colin Auvil '26 [1-2] Karina Reikhrud '25 [3-4] Pierson Falk '24 [5-6] Harper Kelley '25 [1-2] Owen Foley '25 [3-4] Beckett Nutting '24 [5-6]
Islanders	Islanders A	17	14	14	3	7	5	60
East Greenwich High School	Avengers A	12	8	8	13	11	10	62	Milo Baumgartner '25 [1-2, 5-6] Davis Collette '26 [3-4] Isaac Kaldor '25 [1-2, 5-6] Cole Kinzie '25 [3-4]
Barrington High School	Eagles B	10	11	11	15	10	11	68	Jack Gaynor '27 [1-6] Briella Weimer '26 [1-2, 5-6] Abby Guertler '25 [3-4]
Moses Brown School	Quakers B	13	15	15	11	9	14	77	Ivy Dumas '25 Ava Belli '24
Skippers	Skippers B	11	17	17	12	13	15	85
Islanders	Islanders B	20	12	12	16	12	16	88
Skippers	Skippers A	15	10	10	20	20	19	94
Rogers High School	Vikings B	18	16	16	14	17	13	94	Katie Guinan '25 [1] Brettyn Newsome '23 [2, 5-6] Michael Bucci '23 [3-4] Brettyn Newsome '23 [1] Katie Guinan '25 [2] Will Dargan '25 [3-4] Mia Hanson '26 [5-6]
Purple	Purple B	16	18	18	17	16	17	102
Warriors	Warriors A	14	19	19	19	18	18	107
Purple	Purple A	19	20	20	18	19	20	116

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2022 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Barrington High School Eagles	1	1	1	1	1	1
Purple Purple	3	3	3	3	3	3
East Greenwich High School Avengers	5	5	5	5	5	5
Islanders Islanders	7	7	7	7	7	7
Moses Brown School Quakers	9	9	9	9	9	9
Skippers Skippers	11	11	11	11	11	11
Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	13	13	13	13	13	13
Rogers High School Vikings	15	15	15	15	15	15
The Prout School Crusaders	17	17	17	17	17	17
Warriors Warriors	19	19	19	19	19	19

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Barrington High School Eagles	2	2	2	2	2	2
Purple Purple	4	4	4	4	4	4
East Greenwich High School Avengers	6	6	6	6	6	6
Islanders Islanders	8	8	8	8	8	8
Moses Brown School Quakers	10	10	10	10	10	10
Skippers Skippers	12	12	12	12	12	12
Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	14	14	14	14	14	14
Rogers High School Vikings	16	16	16	16	16	16
The Prout School Crusaders	18	18	18	18	18	18
Warriors Warriors	20	20	20	20	20	20

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Barrington High School	Christopher Chwalk '24	Avery Guck '24
Eagles	Jack Gaynor '27 [1-6]	Briella Weimer '26 [1-2, 5-6] Abby Guertler '25 [3-4]
East Greenwich High School	Milo Baumgartner '25 [1-2, 5-6] Davis Collette '26 [3-4]	Isaac Kaldor '25 [1-2, 5-6] Cole Kinzie '25 [3-4]
Avengers	Colin Auvil '26 [1-2] Karina Reikhrud '25 [3-4] Pierson Falk '24 [5-6]	Harper Kelley '25 [1-2] Owen Foley '25 [3-4] Beckett Nutting '24 [5-6]
Moses Brown School	Noah Hemingway '23	Brooke Kelley '24
Quakers	Ivy Dumas '25	Ava Belli '24
Portsmouth High School RI	Henry Steadman '24 [1-2] James Hacket '26 [3-4] Ava Mcdermott '26 [5-6]	Matthew Defalco '27 [1-2] Cameron Davis '26 [3-4] Cole Hughes '24 [5-6]
Patriots	Nehuel Armenanzas '25 [1-4] Leo Burnham '25 [5-6]	Hanalei Streuli '26 [1-4] Tyler Butler '25 [5-6]
Rogers High School	Andrew Goodburn '24 [1-2, 5-6] Morgan Spring '25 [3-4]	Mia Hanson '26 [1-2] Matthew Mullins '23 [3-4] Morgan Spring '25 [5-6]
Vikings	Katie Guinan '25 [1] Brettyn Newsome '23 [2, 5-6] Michael Bucci '23 [3-4]	Brettyn Newsome '23 [1] Katie Guinan '25 [2] Will Dargan '25 [3-4] Mia Hanson '26 [5-6]
The Prout School	Jake Demos '23 [1-2, 5-6] Claire Lewis '23 [3-4]	Carter Sheehan '23 [1-2, 5-6] Lizzie Rak '27 [3-4]
Crusaders	Aurora Meunier Mott '24 [1-2, 5-6] Carter Sheehan '23 [3-4]	Ebby Demos '26 [1-2] Cathryn Mcquesten '26 [3-4] Lizzie Rak '27 [5-6]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Friday Night Lights #4

Division A

Division B

From the notes