| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hingham High School | Hingham | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Sharon High School | Varsity | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Winchester High School | Sachems | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Wellesley High School | Varsity | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Tabor Academy | Seawolves | 2–1 |
| 6 |  |
Unregistered-NESSA | MBL Coop 1 | 3–2 |
| 7 | |
Unregistered-NESSA | MBL Coop 2 | 1–2 |
| 7 | |
Wellesley High School | Raiders | 1–2 |
| 7 |  |
Lincoln Sudbury RHS | Warriors | 1–2 |
| 10 |  |
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols | Knights | 0–3 |
| 10 |  |
Natick High School | Redhawks | 0–3 |
| 10 |  |
Boston Latin School | Wolfpack | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,742 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 4 of 6 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.523 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tabor Academy Seawolves | 1 | 4.11 school +0.33 | Maria Castle / Lucy Lack Eliza Corral / Morgan Whitlock 1–1 Claudia Bria / Camila Diaz 1–1 Claudia Bria / Siena Adduci 1–0 Eliza Corral / Siena Adduci 1–0 | 92% | 2–1 (67%) | −0.8 |
| 6 | Unregistered-NESSA MBL Coop 1 | 2 | 1.95 school +0.33 | Evie Weisenberger / Laura Pisano Emma Beasley / Kate Mason Sage Evans / Sally Clapsaddle 0.67 | 60% | 3–0 (100%) | +1.2 |
| 7 | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | 4 | -0.03 | Alice Moynihan / Gabriella Fragale 0.24 Heidi Heindel / Ann Eaton Jenny Chen / Chloe Sperry | 22% | 1–2 (33%) | +0.3 |
| 10 | BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights | 3 | 0.17 school +0.26 | Alexandra Adams / Caroline White Caroline Jiang / Caroline Dudzinski 0–2 Kate Adams / Isabella Zhu 0–1 Kate Adams / Diba Demir 0–1 Caroline Jiang / Isabella Zhu 0–1 Kate Adams / Scarlett Chan Macrae 0–1 | 26% | 0–3 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Unregistered-NESSA MBL Coop 1 | 1.95 | 4.95 | 3–0 | 1.8 | ≥+3.00 | 2.6 | 10% |
| 7 | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | -0.03 | 0.88 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.91 | 0.2 | 57% |
| 3 | Tabor Academy Seawolves | 4.11 | 1.69 | 2–1 | 2.8 | −2.42 | 1.2 | 99% |
| 10 | BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights | 0.17 | -2.83 | 0–3 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evie Weisenberger | Unregistered-NESSA | 0.46 | 3.46 | 3–0 | 1.8 | ≥+3.00 | 2.6 | 10% |
| Emma Beasley | Unregistered-NESSA | 0.38 | 3.38 | 3–0 | 1.8 | ≥+3.00 | 2.6 | 10% |
| Alice Moynihan | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 0.24 | 1.15 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.91 | 0.2 | 57% |
| Heidi Heindel | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 0.14 | 1.05 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.91 | 0.2 | 57% |
| Claudia Bria | Tabor Academy | 1.22 | -1.20 | 2–1 | 2.8 | −2.42 | 1.2 | 99% |
| Alexandra Adams | BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols | -0.05 | -3.05 | 0–3 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Caroline Jiang | BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols | 0.11 | -2.89 | 0–3 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Academy Seawolves | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | 96% | ||
| 2 | Unregistered-NESSA MBL Coop 1 | BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights | 80% | ||
| 3 | Unregistered-NESSA MBL Coop 1 | Tabor Academy Seawolves | 16% | upset | |
| 4 | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights | 46% | upset | |
| 5 | Tabor Academy Seawolves | BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights | 96% | ||
| 6 | Unregistered-NESSA MBL Coop 1 | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | 83% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seawolves | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
MBL Coop 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Knights | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
MBL Coop 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seawolves | 2-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
MBL Coop 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Hingham | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Redhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Hingham | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hingham | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
MBL Coop 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Sachems | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Sachems | 1-3-4 | def. | |
MBL Coop 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Sachems | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
MBL Coop 2 | 2-4-5 RDG | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-3-6 |
| 19 | |
Hingham | 1-3-4 | def. | |
MBL Coop 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
MBL Coop 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Hingham | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tabor Academy | Seawolves | Claudia Bria '28 Eliza Corral '25 Maria Castle '25 |
Siena Adduci '23 Camila Diaz '24 Morgan Whitlock '25 Lucy Lack '24 |
|
Unregistered-NESSA | MBL Coop 1 | Emma Beasley '23 Evie Weisenberger '23 Sage Evans '25 |
Kate Mason '23 Laura Pisano '23 Sally Clapsaddle '24 |
|
Lincoln Sudbury RHS | Warriors | Alice Moynihan '24 Heidi Heindel '24 Jenny Chen '25 |
Gabriella Fragale '25 Ann Eaton '24 Chloe Sperry '25 |
|
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols | Knights | Alexandra Adams '24 Caroline Jiang '24 Kate Adams '24 |
Caroline White '23 Isabella Zhu '24 Caroline Dudzinski '26 Scarlett Chan Macrae '26 Diba Demir '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
