420 CBI Week 5 #2

HostBB&N
Date05/02/2024
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Beaver Country Day School	Beavers 1	7	7
2	The Winsor School	Winsor Wildcats 2	11	11
3	Quincy High School	Presidents 1	14	14
4	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights 1	15	15
5	The Winsor School	Winsor Wildcats 1	20	20
6	Quincy High School	Presidents 2	22	22
7	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights 2	32	32
8	FCSL 1	FCSL 1	33	33
9	FCSL 2	FCSL 2	37	37
10	Falcons 1	Falcons 1	37	37
11	Beaver Country Day School	Beavers 2	44	44
12	Falcons 2	Falcons 2	50	50

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Beaver Country Day School	Beavers 1	1	1	4	1	7	Elinor Grant '27 Lulu Muwina '27
The Winsor School	Winsor Wildcats 2	2	2	1	6	11	Ada Horton '29 Deedee Ansari '24
Quincy High School	Presidents 1	6	3	2	3	14	Tristan Andre '26 Darwin Dao '27
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights 1	3	5	3	4	15	Caroline Jiang '24 Katelyn Zhu '24
The Winsor School	Winsor Wildcats 1	7	6	5	2	20	Morgan Sanborn '27 Alexis Sanborn '27
Quincy High School	Presidents 2	4	4	7	7	22	Frank Townsend '25 Owen Kourafas '25
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights 2	5	8	6	DNF	32	Alexandra Adams '24 Paul Jeon '25
FCSL 1	FCSL 1	10	7	8	8	33
FCSL 2	FCSL 2	8	10	9	10	37
Falcons 1	Falcons 1	9	9	10	9	37
Beaver Country Day School	Beavers 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	5	44	Kaileigh Ferrero '26 Lucas Werning '27
Falcons 2	Falcons 2	11	DNS	DNS	DNS	50

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights 1	10	10	10	10
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights 2	14	14	14	14
Beaver Country Day School Beavers 1	4	4	4	4
Beaver Country Day School Beavers 2	6	6	6	6
Falcons 1 Falcons 1	13	13	13	13
Falcons 2 Falcons 2	16	16	16	16
Quincy High School Presidents 1	1	1	1	1
Quincy High School Presidents 2	2	2	2	2
The Winsor School Winsor Wildcats 1	8	8	8	8
The Winsor School Winsor Wildcats 2	9	9	9	9
FCSL 1 FCSL 1	5	5	5	5
FCSL 2 FCSL 2	11	11	11	11

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights 1	Caroline Jiang '24	Katelyn Zhu '24
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights 2	Alexandra Adams '24	Paul Jeon '25
Beaver Country Day School	Beavers 1	Elinor Grant '27	Lulu Muwina '27
Beaver Country Day School	Beavers 2	Kaileigh Ferrero '26	Lucas Werning '27
Quincy High School	Presidents 1	Tristan Andre '26	Darwin Dao '27
Quincy High School	Presidents 2	Frank Townsend '25	Owen Kourafas '25
The Winsor School	Winsor Wildcats 1	Morgan Sanborn '27	Alexis Sanborn '27
The Winsor School	Winsor Wildcats 2	Ada Horton '29	Deedee Ansari '24

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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420 CBI Week 5 #2

Division A

From the notes