| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | 8–2 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | 7–3 |
| 4 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | 4–6 |
| 5 | |
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | 3–7 |
| 6 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,494 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 29 of 40 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.685 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.68 ± 0.37: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 2% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | 2 | 4.51 school +0.23 | Adam Turloff / Beckett Ladenburg 1.50 Alexander Turloff / Owen Ploe 1.62 Daniel Chapman / Talia Esarey | 76% | 13–3 (81%) | +0.9 |
| 3 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 1 | 5.49 school +0.13, home +0.17 | Charlie Snyder / Liam Taylor 2.11 Sophia Hubbard / Alyssa Leong 2.27 Liam Power / Simone Reck 0.52 5–3 Levi Morse / Simone Reck 0.84 5–3 | 89% | 10–6 (62%) | −4.2 |
| 4 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 3 | 1.82 school +0.23 | Alden Lemon / Gabrielle Jelic Suraj Siddaiah / Emma Jackson Gretchen Fiscus / Nick Heinzelman | 33% | 7–9 (44%) | +1.7 |
| 5 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 4 | 1.50 school +0.13, home +0.17 | Cate Griffith / Caleigh Mingay Cameron Leclair / Brolin Boelts 0.19 Yoon-Soo Ban / Maddox Gorum | 28% | 3–13 (19%) | −1.5 |
| 6 | Capital High School Cougars | 5 | 1.25 school −0.17 | Aidan Budelman / Siri Biswas Alijah Manzanares / Alden Visser 0.32 Ryan Solie / Seher Kasmani | 24% | 7–9 (44%) | +3.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Capital High School Cougars | 1.25 | 2.79 | 7–9 | 3.9 | +1.54 | 2.8 | 5% |
| 4 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 1.82 | 2.69 | 7–9 | 5.3 | +0.87 | 0.9 | 22% |
| 2 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | 4.51 | 5.16 | 13–3 | 12.1 | +0.66 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 5 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 1.50 | 0.66 | 3–13 | 4.5 | −0.83 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 3 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 5.49 | 2.99 | 10–6 | 14.3 | −2.49 | 6.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Budelman | Capital High School | 0.44 | 1.98 | 7–9 | 3.9 | +1.54 | 2.8 | 5% |
| Alijah Manzanares | Capital High School | 0.32 | 1.86 | 7–9 | 3.9 | +1.54 | 2.8 | 5% |
| Ryan Solie | Capital High School | 0.29 | 1.82 | 7–9 | 3.9 | +1.54 | 2.8 | 5% |
| Alden Lemon | Bainbridge High School | 0.19 | 1.07 | 7–9 | 5.3 | +0.87 | 0.9 | 22% |
| Gretchen Fiscus | Bainbridge High School | 0.33 | 1.21 | 7–9 | 5.3 | +0.87 | 0.9 | 22% |
| Adam Turloff | Bainbridge High School | 1.50 | 2.15 | 13–3 | 12.1 | +0.66 | 0.3 | 40% |
| Alexander Turloff | Bainbridge High School | 1.62 | 2.27 | 13–3 | 12.1 | +0.66 | 0.3 | 40% |
| Daniel Chapman | Bainbridge High School | 0.88 | 1.54 | 13–3 | 12.1 | +0.66 | 0.3 | 40% |
| Cate Griffith | Olympia High School | 0.44 | -0.39 | 3–13 | 4.5 | −0.83 | 0.7 | 90% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Lions | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-5-6 DNS |
| 17 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Bears 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bears 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Lions | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Bears 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Bears 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Lions | ||
| 32 | |
Cougars | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 33 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 34 | |
Cougars | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 35 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Lions | ||
| 36 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 37 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Cougars | ||
| 38 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 39 | |
Lions | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 40 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | ||
| 41 | |
Lions | def. | |
Cougars | ||
| 42 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 43 | |
Lions | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 44 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | ||
| 45 | |
Cougars | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 46 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Lions | ||
| 47 | |
Cougars | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 48 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 49 | |
Cougars | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 50 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Lions | ||
| 51 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 52 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Cougars | ||
| 53 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 54 | |
Lions | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 55 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | ||
| 56 | |
Lions | def. | |
Cougars | ||
| 57 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 58 | |
Lions | def. | |
Spartans 1 | ||
| 59 | |
Bears 1 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | ||
| 60 | |
Cougars | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | Adam Turloff '24 Alexander Turloff '24 Daniel Chapman '27 |
Beckett Ladenburg '27 Owen Ploe '24 Talia Esarey '24 |
|
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | Charlie Snyder '24 Levi Morse '24 Liam Power '25 Sophia Hubbard '24 |
Liam Taylor '25 Simone Reck '27 Alyssa Leong '26 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | Alden Lemon '25 Gretchen Fiscus '26 Suraj Siddaiah '26 |
Gabrielle Jelic '27 Nick Heinzelman '24 Emma Jackson '26 |
|
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | Cameron Leclair '27 Cate Griffith '27 Yoon-Soo Ban '25 |
Brolin Boelts '26 Caleigh Mingay '25 Maddox Gorum '25 |
|
Capital High School | Cougars | Aidan Budelman '25 Alijah Manzanares '25 Ryan Solie '25 |
Siri Biswas '28 Alden Visser '27 Seher Kasmani '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
