| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 11–1 |
| 2 |  |
Mater Dei High School | Monarchs | 10–2 |
| 3 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 3–9 |
| 4 |  |
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | 3–9 |
| 5 |  |
San Marcos High School | Knights | 3–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,622 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 30 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.445 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.03 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 42% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Point Loma High School Pointers | 1 | 9.00 school +0.05 | Anton Schmid / Sabrina Anderson Harrison Strom / Olive Kanemasu 2.65 Ian Nyenhuis / Jonah Wozniak 3.18 | 78% | 11–1 (92%) | +1.6 |
| 2 | Mater Dei High School Monarchs | 2 | 8.55 school −0.23 | Chase Decker / Ashtyn Tierney 3.22 Tate Christopher / Madison Mansour Noah Stapleton / Hannah Crompton | 71% | 10–2 (83%) | +1.5 |
| 3 | Newport Harbor High School Sailors | 5 | 5.29 | Conrad Cook / Olivia Norton 2.04 Reid White / Cash Espinoza Charlotte Carmichael / Vance Khamsi | 12% | 3–9 (25%) | +1.6 |
| 4 | Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings | 3 | 7.46 school −0.15 | Dylan Sih / Taylor Bartell 3.01 Piper Blackband / Isabella Clark 2.42 Michael Sentovich / Julia Getter 2.05 | 49% | 3–9 (25%) | −2.9 |
| 5 | San Marcos High School Knights | 4 | 7.00 school +0.35 | Carly Kieding / Hope Campbell 2.68 Teo Lee / Brynn Behrens Sam Wells / Taylor Escola | 40% | 3–9 (25%) | −1.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Point Loma High School | 9.00 | 10.56 | 11–1 | 9.4 | +1.56 | 1.3 | 21% |
| 3 | Newport Harbor High School | 5.29 | 6.48 | 3–9 | 1.5 | +1.19 | 1.1 | 17% |
| 2 | Mater Dei High School | 8.55 | 9.65 | 10–2 | 8.5 | +1.10 | 0.9 | 24% |
| 5 | San Marcos High School | 7.00 | 5.79 | 3–9 | 4.8 | −1.21 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 4 | Corona del Mar High School | 7.46 | 5.69 | 3–9 | 5.9 | −1.78 | 2.7 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Schmid | Point Loma High School | 2.96 | 4.52 | 11–1 | 9.4 | +1.56 | 1.3 | 21% |
| Reid White | Newport Harbor High School | 1.42 | 2.61 | 3–9 | 1.5 | +1.19 | 1.1 | 17% |
| Teo Lee | San Marcos High School | 2.07 | 0.86 | 3–9 | 4.8 | −1.21 | 1.2 | 95% |
| Sam Wells | San Marcos High School | 1.64 | 0.44 | 3–9 | 4.8 | −1.21 | 1.2 | 95% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Knights | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Knights | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Sea Kings | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Knights | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Knights | 2-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Sailors | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Knights | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Sailors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Knights | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 2-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Point Loma High School | Pointers | Anton Schmid '26 Harrison Strom '24 Ian Nyenhuis '25 |
Sabrina Anderson '24 Olive Kanemasu '27 Jonah Wozniak '25 |
|
Mater Dei High School | Monarchs | Chase Decker '24 Noah Stapleton '25 Tate Christopher '25 |
Ashtyn Tierney '24 Hannah Crompton '26 Madison Mansour '26 |
|
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | Charlotte Carmichael '27 Conrad Cook '25 Reid White '27 |
Vance Khamsi '27 Olivia Norton '27 Cash Espinoza '25 |
|
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | Dylan Sih '24 Michael Sentovich '26 Piper Blackband '24 |
Taylor Bartell '24 Julia Getter '26 Isabella Clark '25 |
|
San Marcos High School | Knights | Carly Kieding '25 Sam Wells '26 Teo Lee '26 |
Hope Campbell '24 Taylor Escola '27 Brynn Behrens '26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
