Newport Harbor High School '25
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 4.46 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.099 rating points from 65 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →Includes linked high school and college seasons.
| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 0.51 | 33.28 | 2.78 | 18 of 18 | 8 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | Newport Harbor High School | 0.35 | 29.45 | 16.67 | 3 of 3 | 15 | Team page | |
| Fall 2023 | Newport Harbor High School | 0.57 | 30.09 | 21.43 | 6 of 7 | 35 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.17 (fleet 1.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–4 (43%) as crew 3–9 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | — | 3–9 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 6–13 against 4.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | PCISA Team Race PCCs | skipper | 1.56 | 1.35 | 3–4 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 2024-04-13 | PCISA Team Race PCCs 2024 | crew | 1.42 | 2.61 | 3–9 | 1.5 | +1.19 | 1.1 | 17% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA Team Race PCCs | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| PCISA Gaucho Regatta - Gold | Skipper | A | 8 | 21.4 | 0.81 |
| 2025 Phebe Corckran King Memorial Trophy | Crew | A | 7 | 5.7 | — |
| 2025 PCISA GOLDEN BEAR GOLD | Skipper | B | 6 | 19.0 | 1.30 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Sea Otter 2024 - GOLD | Skipper | A | 8 | 18.8 | 1.14 |
| 2025 Rose Bowl Regatta - HS GOLD | Skipper | A | 6 | 21.0 | 0.82 |
| 2024 PCISA Keelboat Challenge Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 4.2 | — |
| 2024 Anteater Regatta - GOLD | Skipper | A | 7 | 22.3 | 0.63 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA Team Race PCCs 2024 | Crew | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| PCISA Gold PCCs 2024 | Crew | A | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| PCISA Gaucho Regatta - Gold | Crew | B | 7 | 15.9 | — |
| 2024 PCISA #4 Golden Bear Gold Fleet | Crew | B | 6 | 20.3 | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| 2024 Rose Bowl Regatta - GOLD | Crew | A, B | 7 | 21.6 | — |
| 2023 Sea Otter - Gold Fleet | Crew | B | 5 | 21.6 | — |
| 2023 Anteater Regatta - GOLD | Crew | A, B | 8 | 18.4 | — |
| 2023-24 PCISA SoCal 2 Gold | Crew | A | 8 | 3.9 | — |
| 2023-24 PCISA SoCal 3 Gold | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.9 | 2.20 |
| 2023-24 PCISA SoCal 1 Gold | Crew | A | 9 | 14.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Cash Espinoza |  St. Mary's College of Maryland |
'29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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