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2024 PCISA Keelboat Challenge

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Pointers 16 16
2 Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 22 22
3 Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Sailors 25 25
4 Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 26 26
5 Redwood Redwood Giants 26 26
6 Los Alamitos High School Los Alamitos High School Griffins 33 33
7 Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 34 34
8 The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 42 42
9 Parker Parker Parker 49 49
10 San Pedro High School San Pedro High School Pirates 56 56
11 South Torrance High School South Torrance High School Spartans 64 64
12 Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons 70 70
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Pointers 1 1 2 1 9 2 16
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 5 2 4 3 3 5 22
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Sailors 3 RDG 11 2 1 4 25
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 4 5 1 8 2 6 26
Redwood Redwood Giants 7 4 3 6 5 1 26
Los Alamitos High School Los Alamitos High School Griffins 6 7 9 4 4 3 33
Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 2 6 6 5 6 9 34
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 9 3 5 7 10 8 42
Parker Parker Parker 10 8 7 10 7 7 49
San Pedro High School San Pedro High School Pirates 8 10 8 11 8 11 56
South Torrance High School South Torrance High School Spartans 11 11 12 9 11 10 64
Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons 12 12 10 12 12 12 70
School Team Sailors
Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Dons SkipperOwen Fretwell '26
CrewLiam Kaseburg '26
CrewCarlin Fretwell '26
CrewSean Kaseburg '28
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings SkipperSiena Nichols '27 [1-10]
CrewMichael Sentovich '26 [1-10]
CrewMaddie Nichols '27 [1-10]
CrewIsabella Clark '25 [1-10]
Los Alamitos High School Los Alamitos High School Griffins SkipperStewart McCaleb '26 [1-10]
CrewReef Settlemire '27 [1-10]
CrewMathilde Smith '26 [1-10]
CrewHenry Tran '28 [1-10]
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs SkipperNoah Stapleton '25
CrewTate Christopher '25
CrewWalter McFarland '25
CrewSophia Corzine '26
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Sailors SkipperConrad Cook '25
CrewReid White '27
CrewCash Espinoza '25
CrewCharlotte Carmichael '27
Parker Parker Parker SkipperEmily Otto '26
CrewFenja Bahrenburg '25
CrewDominic Ciccimaro '25
CrewCaeden Nodurft '25
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Pointers SkipperIan Nyenhuis '25 [1-12]
CrewSkye Terrell '25 [1-12]
CrewWyatt Kelly '26 [1-12]
CrewRyan Downey '25 [1-12]
Redwood Redwood Giants SkipperMark Xu '26 [1-12]
CrewHenry Vare '26
CrewBlake Oberbauer '26 [1-12]
CrewRhett Krawitt '26 [1-12]
Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons SkipperJessica Green '25 [1-10]
CrewIshaan Peterson '28 [1-10]
CrewAbigail Fenholt '28 [1-10]
CrewElijah Soussan '26 [1-10]
South Torrance High School South Torrance High School Spartans SkipperJoaquin DesRochers '25
CrewReese Lieser '25
CrewArianna Yiakas '27
CrewCaleb Rauzon '27
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers SkipperCaleb Everett '26
CrewNico Anders '26
CrewLelio Maurillo '25
CrewAnna Rauh '26

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 78 ISSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  12 boats · 6 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Ian Nyenhuis '25Point Loma High School6/62.532.97+0.4599th → 99th0.515%2.7 / 4.5
2Siena Nichols '27Corona del Mar High School6/62.022.81+0.7899th → 99th1.719%3.7 / 5.4
3Mark Xu '26Redwood6/61.902.44+0.5499th → 99th0.925%4.3 / 5.8
3Noah Stapleton '25Mater Dei High School6/62.382.30−0.0999th → 99th0.045%4.3 / 4.8
5Stewart McCaleb '26Los Alamitos High School6/61.012.02+1.0174th → 99th2.815%5.5 / 7.6
6Conrad Cook '25Newport Harbor High School6/61.861.95+0.0999th → 99th0.049%5.7 / 5.9
6Owen Fretwell '26Cathedral Catholic High School6/61.711.95+0.2599th → 99th0.244%5.7 / 6.2
8Caleb Everett '26The Bay School of San Francisco6/61.351.54+0.1992nd → 92nd0.154%7.0 / 6.9
9Emily Otto '26Parker6/61.021.24+0.2374th → 90th0.262%8.2 / 7.6
11Joaquin DesRochers '25South Torrance High School6/60.620.26−0.3651st → 19th0.491%10.7 / 8.3
12Jessica Green '25Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science6/60.34-1.54−1.8826th → 1st4.599%11.7 / 8.8

Conditions — 09/28/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1011.1 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.2 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From WNW (299°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover14% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1011.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Point Loma — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Point Loma in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Point Loma by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Point Loma: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →