SAISA North Points 7 (JV)

HostJohn T. Hoggard/New Hanover
Date03/16/2024
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Chapin High School	Varsity Sailing	12	62	74
2	New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	53	23	76
3	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 1	41	43	84
4	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 2	87	18	105
5	Cardinal Gibbons High School (NC)	JV	34	85	119
6	First Flight High School	Nighthawks JVC	55	68	123
7	Pine Lake Prep	Composite	63	78	141
8	New Hanover High School	Wildcats	91	55	146
9	Ben Lippen School	Varsity Sailing	69	89	158
10	Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	82	76	158
11	Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	93	70	163

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Chapin High School	Varsity Sailing	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	12	Anna Kate Horton '25 Taylor Bulwinkle '24
Cardinal Gibbons High School (NC)	JV	1	3	3	3	3	6	5	2	5	3	34	Liam Holder '24 [1-10] Henry Roney '24 [1-3, 7-9] Jack Boucher '26 [4-6, 10]
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 1	2	4	5	2	4	10	3	4	2	5	41	Trey Medlin '25 Carter Lynch '26
New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	8	DNS	DNS	4	2	2	2	5	4	2	53	Chase Fidgeon '27 Henry Foster '28
First Flight High School	Nighthawks JVC	5	2	2	6	10	5	7	7	3	8	55	Sarai Bullock '25 [1-10] Autumn Sailor '26 [1-3] Michael Eaton '25 [4-10]
Pine Lake Prep	Composite	6	6	6	9	5	4	11	6	6	4	63	Narayan Schmoyer '26 Wesley Bassett '28
Ben Lippen School	Varsity Sailing	4	5	4	7	7	7	8	10	10	7	69	Haolin Chen '28 Samuel Welsford '24
Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	DNS	7	8	8	8	3	10	8	9	9	82	Hailey Bagnoni '28 Ian Sternkopf '27
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	6	OCS	4	3	8	6	87	Alex Cai '25 Davis Beatty '27
New Hanover High School	Wildcats	DNS	DNS	DNS	5	9	9	6	9	7	10	91	Sam Warner '27 Lucian Lerose '27
Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	7	8	7	10	11	8	9	11	11	11	93	Maverick Heater '24 Levi Sablotsky '28

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 2	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	18	Lee Wehr '25 Abby Lacefield '26
New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	DSQ	23	Graham Foster '26 Carter Trowbridge '27
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 1	4	3	4	5	9	3	3	6	3	3	43	Eleanor Wright '26 Elizabeth Lennert '25
New Hanover High School	Wildcats	5	5	5	8	3	7	6	4	8	4	55	Luca Williamson '24 Gage Bauer '27
Chapin High School	Varsity Sailing	10	8	8	6	8	6	5	5	5	1	62	Lucy Carroll '24 Theresa Ziehl '25
First Flight High School	Nighthawks JVC	3	9	10	4	5	4	8	10	9	6	68	Noah Phillips '28 [1-10] Harry Lipchack '28 [1-6] Autumn Sailor '26 [7-10]
Philip Simmons High School	Iron Horses	6	4	9	9	11	9	7	3	7	5	70	Brian Stambough '26 Atharva Patil '26
Aquinas High School	Fighting Irish	7	6	3	3	4	5	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	76	Ian Sternkopf '27 Harry Pendergrass '26
Pine Lake Prep	Composite	8	7	6	7	6	8	10	7	10	9	78	Barry Kaplan '27 No Show
Cardinal Gibbons High School (NC)	JV	9	10	DNF	10	7	10	4	9	6	8	85	Alex Patton '23 [1-10] No Show [1-3, 7-9] Alex Bettini '24 [4-6, 10]
Ben Lippen School	Varsity Sailing	11	11	7	11	10	11	9	8	4	7	89	Anna Grace Williams '24 Griffin Sorensen '24

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Aquinas High School Fighting Irish	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Ben Lippen School Varsity Sailing	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cardinal Gibbons High School (NC) JV	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54
Chapin High School Varsity Sailing	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763
First Flight High School Nighthawks JVC	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
New Hanover High School Wildcats	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Philip Simmons High School Iron Horses	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	51
Pine Lake Prep Composite	121	121	121	121	121	121	121	121	121	121

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Aquinas High School Fighting Irish	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Ben Lippen School Varsity Sailing	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cardinal Gibbons High School (NC) JV	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54
Chapin High School Varsity Sailing	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763	4763
First Flight High School Nighthawks JVC	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369	3369
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
New Hanover High School Wildcats	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Philip Simmons High School Iron Horses	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	51
Pine Lake Prep Composite	121	121	121	121	121	121	121	121	121	121

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Aquinas High School	Hailey Bagnoni '28	Ian Sternkopf '27
Fighting Irish	Ian Sternkopf '27	Harry Pendergrass '26
Ben Lippen School	Haolin Chen '28	Samuel Welsford '24
Varsity Sailing	Anna Grace Williams '24	Griffin Sorensen '24
Cardinal Gibbons High School (NC)	Liam Holder '24 [1-10]	Henry Roney '24 [1-3, 7-9] Jack Boucher '26 [4-6, 10]
JV	Alex Patton '23 [1-10]	No Show [1-3, 7-9] Alex Bettini '24 [4-6, 10]
Chapin High School	Anna Kate Horton '25	Taylor Bulwinkle '24
Varsity Sailing	Lucy Carroll '24	Theresa Ziehl '25
First Flight High School	Sarai Bullock '25 [1-10]	Autumn Sailor '26 [1-3] Michael Eaton '25 [4-10]
Nighthawks JVC	Noah Phillips '28 [1-10]	Harry Lipchack '28 [1-6] Autumn Sailor '26 [7-10]
John T. Hoggard High School	Trey Medlin '25	Carter Lynch '26
Vikings Varsity 1	Eleanor Wright '26	Elizabeth Lennert '25
John T. Hoggard High School	Alex Cai '25	Davis Beatty '27
Vikings Varsity 2	Lee Wehr '25	Abby Lacefield '26
New Bern High School	Chase Fidgeon '27	Henry Foster '28
NB Bears Sailing	Graham Foster '26	Carter Trowbridge '27
New Hanover High School	Sam Warner '27	Lucian Lerose '27
Wildcats	Luca Williamson '24	Gage Bauer '27
Philip Simmons High School	Maverick Heater '24	Levi Sablotsky '28
Iron Horses	Brian Stambough '26	Atharva Patil '26
Pine Lake Prep	Narayan Schmoyer '26	Wesley Bassett '28
Composite	Barry Kaplan '27	No Show

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SAISA North Points 7 (JV)

Division A

Division B

From the notes