| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Sturgis Charter Public School | Navigators | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Cape Cod Academy | Seahawks | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
Moses Brown School | Quakers | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,148 team race matches sailed before 2024-05-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 12 matches (42%) with a log-loss of 0.804 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −2.91 ± 1.29: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 1% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturgis Charter Public School Navigators | 3 | 1.25 | Austin Budd / Shea Rockwell Noah Lyonnais / Phoebe Thorrold Kiana Stangellini / Kevin Sheedy | 37% | 7–1 (88%) | +4.0 |
| 2 | Cape Cod Academy Seahawks | 1 | 2.06 school +0.61, home +0.15 | Laine Jasen / John Malkani Jack Fitzgerald / Chloe Donavan Luke Pierce / Alexandra Parker | 61% | 5–3 (62%) | +0.1 |
| 3 | Moses Brown School Quakers | 2 | 1.82 school −0.15 | Ilsa Malloy / Lincoln Knapp Steven Lyu / Sophia Jia Reyan Datta / Malu Mesulam | 52% | 0–8 (0%) | −4.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturgis Charter Public School | 1.25 | 4.44 | 7–1 | 3.0 | +3.19 | 6.4 | 1% |
| 2 | Cape Cod Academy | 2.06 | 2.15 | 5–3 | 4.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 3 | Moses Brown School | 1.82 | -1.18 | 0–8 | 4.2 | ≤−3.00 | 7.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Budd | Sturgis Charter Public School | 0.21 | 3.40 | 7–1 | 3.0 | +3.19 | 6.4 | 1% |
| Noah Lyonnais | Sturgis Charter Public School | 0.12 | 3.31 | 7–1 | 3.0 | +3.19 | 6.4 | 1% |
| Kiana Stangellini | Sturgis Charter Public School | 0.54 | 3.72 | 7–1 | 3.0 | +3.19 | 6.4 | 1% |
| Laine Jasen | Cape Cod Academy | 0.45 | 0.54 | 5–3 | 4.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Jack Fitzgerald | Cape Cod Academy | 0.63 | 0.72 | 5–3 | 4.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Ilsa Malloy | Moses Brown School | 0.54 | -2.46 | 0–8 | 4.2 | ≤−3.00 | 7.5 | >99% |
| Steven Lyu | Moses Brown School | 0.54 | -2.46 | 0–8 | 4.2 | ≤−3.00 | 7.5 | >99% |
| Reyan Datta | Moses Brown School | 0.54 | -2.46 | 0–8 | 4.2 | ≤−3.00 | 7.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sturgis Charter Public School | Cape Cod Academy | 35% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | Cape Cod Academy | Moses Brown School | 58% | |
| 1 | 3 | Sturgis Charter Public School | Moses Brown School | 39% | upset |
| 2 | 4 | Sturgis Charter Public School | Cape Cod Academy | 35% | upset |
| 2 | 5 | Cape Cod Academy | Moses Brown School | 56% | |
| 2 | 6 | Sturgis Charter Public School | Moses Brown School | 39% | upset |
| 3 | 7 | Sturgis Charter Public School | Cape Cod Academy | 35% | upset |
| 3 | 8 | Cape Cod Academy | Moses Brown School | 56% | |
| 3 | 9 | Sturgis Charter Public School | Moses Brown School | 39% | upset |
| 4 | 10 | Cape Cod Academy | Sturgis Charter Public School | 65% | |
| 4 | 11 | Cape Cod Academy | Moses Brown School | 55% | |
| 4 | 12 | Sturgis Charter Public School | Moses Brown School | 39% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Navigators | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Navigators | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-4-5 DSQ |
| 11 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sturgis Charter Public School | Navigators | Austin Budd '26 Kiana Stangellini '27 Noah Lyonnais '28 |
Shea Rockwell '26 Kevin Sheedy '25 Phoebe Thorrold '25 |
|
Cape Cod Academy | Seahawks | Jack Fitzgerald '30 Laine Jasen '28 Luke Pierce '28 |
Chloe Donavan '28 John Malkani '28 Alexandra Parker '28 |
|
Moses Brown School | Quakers | Ilsa Malloy '27 Reyan Datta '25 Steven Lyu '24 |
Lincoln Knapp '25 Malu Mesulam '23 Sophia Jia '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
