| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Saint Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 2–2 |
| 3 |  |
St. Patrick Catholic High School | Fighting Irish | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,611 team race matches sailed before 2025-05-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 6 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.505 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays | 1 | 2.31 school −0.16 | David Karcher / Matthew Brown 1.18 Aidan Mckoin / Harrison Teske 0.74 Parker Lilly / Pierre Worms 2–0 Pierre Worms / Thomas Denning 2–0 | 62% | 4–0 (100%) | +1.5 |
| 2 | Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws | 2 | 1.94 school +0.12, home +0.14 | Karoline Burroughs / Emma Harris Aidan Castle / Kade Johnston 0.91 Landon Newton / Matthew Fasullo 0.19 | 52% | 2–2 (50%) | −0.1 |
| 3 | St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish | 3 | 1.50 school +0.08 | Court Salloum / James Marsh 0.72 Cooper Joachim / Savannah Tremblay John Hobbs Beattie / Blake Beale | 36% | 0–4 (0%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 2.31 | 5.31 | 4–0 | 2.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.5 | 14% |
| 2 | Saint Stanislaus | 1.94 | 1.85 | 2–2 | 2.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 3 | St. Patrick Catholic High School | 1.50 | -1.50 | 0–4 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Mckoin | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.74 | 3.74 | 4–0 | 2.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.5 | 14% |
| Karoline Burroughs | Saint Stanislaus | 0.45 | 0.36 | 2–2 | 2.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Aidan Castle | Saint Stanislaus | 0.91 | 0.82 | 2–2 | 2.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Landon Newton | Saint Stanislaus | 0.19 | 0.10 | 2–2 | 2.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Cooper Joachim | St. Patrick Catholic High School | 0.38 | -2.62 | 0–4 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| John Hobbs Beattie | St. Patrick Catholic High School | 0.12 | -2.88 | 0–4 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | Aidan Mckoin '26 David Karcher '26 Parker Lilly '29 Pierre Worms '29 |
Harrison Teske '29 Matthew Brown '26 Pierre Worms '29 Thomas Denning '28 |
|
Saint Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | Aidan Castle '25 Karoline Burroughs '26 Landon Newton '26 |
Kade Johnston '26 Emma Harris '27 Matthew Fasullo '26 |
|
St. Patrick Catholic High School | Fighting Irish | Cooper Joachim '30 Court Salloum '26 John Hobbs Beattie '30 |
Savannah Tremblay '30 James Marsh '30 Blake Beale '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
