| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Clear Lake High School | Falcons Green | 3–1 |
| 2 |  |
Lake Travis High School | Cavaliers | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Flour Bluff High School | Hornets | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,868 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 7 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.506 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Lake High School Falcons Green | 1 | 4.56 school +0.16 | Casey Small / James Gonzalez Sydney Small / Karaline Cronan Zachary Brown / Patrick Mcnamara | 91% | 4–1 (80%) | −0.5 |
| 2 | Lake Travis High School Cavaliers | 2 | 1.90 school +0.12 | Ryder Getson / Lilly Wind 1.07 Zachary Romberg / Calvin Brock Wyatt Romberg / Jackson Brock | 31% | 3–2 (60%) | +1.4 |
| 3 | Flour Bluff High School Hornets | 3 | 1.25 home +0.20 | Jessica Hobbs / Breanna Kreft Yasmeen Djilali / Claira Shores Caroline Levandowski / Scarlett Palmer | 22% | 0–4 (0%) | −0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lake Travis High School | 1.90 | 4.06 | 3–2 | 1.6 | +2.16 | 1.8 | 13% |
| 1 | Clear Lake High School | 4.56 | 3.41 | 4–1 | 4.5 | −1.15 | 0.4 | 93% |
| 3 | Flour Bluff High School | 1.25 | -1.75 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Romberg | Lake Travis High School | 0.20 | 2.36 | 3–2 | 1.6 | +2.16 | 1.8 | 13% |
| Wyatt Romberg | Lake Travis High School | 0.34 | 2.50 | 3–2 | 1.6 | +2.16 | 1.8 | 13% |
| Casey Small | Clear Lake High School | 1.16 | 0.01 | 4–1 | 4.5 | −1.15 | 0.4 | 93% |
| Sydney Small | Clear Lake High School | 1.76 | 0.61 | 4–1 | 4.5 | −1.15 | 0.4 | 93% |
| Jessica Hobbs | Flour Bluff High School | 0.44 | -2.56 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Yasmeen Djilali | Flour Bluff High School | 0.37 | -2.63 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Caroline Levandowski | Flour Bluff High School | 0.01 | -2.99 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Falcons Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Falcons Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Cavaliers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons Green | 2-4-6 OCS |
| 5 | |
Falcons Green | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Falcons Green | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Clear Lake High School | Falcons Green | Casey Small '28 Sydney Small '28 Zachary Brown '26 |
James Gonzalez '26 Karaline Cronan '28 Patrick Mcnamara '28 |
|
Lake Travis High School | Cavaliers | Ryder Getson '25 Wyatt Romberg '28 Zachary Romberg '26 |
Lilly Wind '25 Jackson Brock '28 Calvin Brock '28 |
|
Flour Bluff High School | Hornets | Caroline Levandowski '27 Jessica Hobbs '27 Yasmeen Djilali '27 |
Scarlett Palmer '28 Breanna Kreft '27 Claira Shores '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
