| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Birmingham Public Schools | Varsity | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | Varsity | 3–6 |
| 4 |  |
Troy High School | Troy | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,107 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 18 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.280 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.00 ± 0.57: a typical event, more orderly than 40% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils | 1 | 4.16 school −0.10 | Cooper Riley / Lucy Caulfield 0.94 Peter Horst / Ciara Nordstrom 1.63 6–0 Ana Kozak / Jack Horst 3–0 Peter Horst / Ana Kozak 1.72 2–1 Bobby Cooper / Jack Horst 1.24 2–1 Ana Kozak / Bobby Cooper 3–0 | 89% | 8–1 (89%) | +0.0 |
| 2 | Birmingham Public Schools Varsity | 2 | 2.87 school −0.25 | Ryan Ellison / Princeton Reese 1.24 Luc Messner / Alexandra Hernandez 0.58 Elsa Wellenkotter / Sydney Rosenberg | 73% | 7–2 (78%) | +0.4 |
| 3 | Detroit Country Day School Varsity | 4 | -1.01 school −0.53 | Ashwin Kesliker / Jasper Xu -0.17 Krish Reddy / Shiv Sahni 0.44 Alexander Doerr / James He | 16% | 3–6 (33%) | +1.6 |
| 4 | Troy High School Troy | 3 | -0.54 school +0.18 | Maya Nagy / Meera Patel -0.01 Oliver Jones / Rithwik Fredrick Iris Kerges / Laura Lemoal | 23% | 0–9 (0%) | −2.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Detroit Country Day School | -1.01 | 0.89 | 3–6 | 1.4 | +1.91 | 1.8 | 13% |
| 2 | Birmingham Public Schools | 2.87 | 3.46 | 7–2 | 6.6 | +0.59 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 4.16 | 4.20 | 8–1 | 8.0 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 4 | Troy High School | -0.54 | -3.54 | 0–9 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 3.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ana Kozak | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.52 | 4.52 | 6–0 | 5.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 89% |
| Ashwin Kesliker | Detroit Country Day School | -0.17 | 1.74 | 3–6 | 1.4 | +1.91 | 1.8 | 13% |
| Alexander Doerr | Detroit Country Day School | -0.90 | 1.01 | 3–6 | 1.4 | +1.91 | 1.8 | 13% |
| Elsa Wellenkotter | Birmingham Public Schools | 1.06 | 1.65 | 7–2 | 6.6 | +0.59 | 0.1 | 52% |
| Bobby Cooper | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.24 | 1.05 | 2–1 | 2.1 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Iris Kerges | Troy High School | -0.52 | -3.52 | 0–9 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 3.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Troy | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Troy | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Troy | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Troy | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Troy | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Troy | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Troy | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Troy | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Troy | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | Ana Kozak '27 Bobby Cooper '27 Cooper Riley '28 Peter Horst '26 |
Jack Horst '29 Bobby Cooper '27 Lucy Caulfield '29 Ciara Nordstrom '28 Ana Kozak '27 |
|
Birmingham Public Schools | Varsity | Elsa Wellenkotter '29 Luc Messner '27 Ryan Ellison '28 |
Sydney Rosenberg '26 Alexandra Hernandez '29 Princeton Reese '29 |
|
Detroit Country Day School | Varsity | Alexander Doerr '29 Ashwin Kesliker '26 Krish Reddy '26 |
James He '27 Jasper Xu '29 Shiv Sahni '28 |
|
Troy High School | Troy | Iris Kerges '28 Maya Nagy '26 Oliver Jones '28 |
Laura Lemoal '27 Meera Patel '28 Rithwik Fredrick '28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
