| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 1 | 6–0 |
| 2 | |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 2 | 2–4 |
| 3 |  |
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,098 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 9 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.307 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | 1 | 7.40 school +0.17, home +0.08 | Chris Small / Christian Diaz 2.75 Jules Buczkowski / Ryder Christie 2.15 Cole Buczkowski / Edward Solodkiy 2.10 | 93% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.4 |
| 2 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 3 | 3.82 school +0.17, home +0.08 | Patrick Kennedy / Joseph Boracchia 1.83 Christos Lambrou / Jack Slavin 0.97 Seth Santos / Anthony Ferrari 0.67 | 23% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.6 |
| 3 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 2 | 4.32 school −0.24 | Liam Marcell / Grace Torpey 1.97 Cameron Hart / Julianna Brooksbank 1.33 Henry Hull / Grace Ciak | 34% | 1–5 (17%) | −1.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | 7.40 | 10.40 | 6–0 | 5.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 65% |
| 2 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 3.82 | 4.65 | 2–4 | 1.4 | +0.83 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 3 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 4.32 | 2.77 | 1–5 | 2.0 | −1.54 | 0.9 | 95% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Buczkowski | Christian Brothers Academy | 2.10 | 5.10 | 6–0 | 5.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 65% |
| Patrick Kennedy | Christian Brothers Academy | 1.83 | 2.66 | 2–4 | 1.4 | +0.83 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Christos Lambrou | Christian Brothers Academy | 0.97 | 1.80 | 2–4 | 1.4 | +0.83 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Seth Santos | Christian Brothers Academy | 0.67 | 1.50 | 2–4 | 1.4 | +0.83 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Cameron Hart | Donovan Catholic High School | 1.33 | -0.21 | 1–5 | 2.0 | −1.54 | 0.9 | 95% |
| Henry Hull | Donovan Catholic High School | 1.18 | -0.37 | 1–5 | 2.0 | −1.54 | 0.9 | 95% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 91% | |
| 1 | 2 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 94% | |
| 1 | 3 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 40% | upset |
| 2 | 4 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 92% | |
| 2 | 5 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 94% | |
| 2 | 6 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 41% | upset |
| 3 | 7 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | 92% | |
| 3 | 8 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 94% | |
| 3 | 9 | Donovan Catholic High School Griffins | Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 | 59% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Colts 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Colts 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Griffins | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Colts 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Griffins | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Colts 2 | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 1 | Christopher Small '26 Cole Buczkowski '27 Jules Buczkowski '26 |
Christian Diaz '28 Edward Solodkiy '29 Ryder Christie '29 |
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts 2 | Christos Lambrou '29 Patrick Kennedy '28 Seth Santos '27 |
Jack Slavin '28 Joseph Boracchia '28 Anthony Ferrari '29 |
|
Donovan Catholic High School | Griffins | Cameron Hart '27 Henry Hull '29 Liam Marcell '26 |
Julianna Brooksbank '28 Grace Ciak '26 Grace Torpey '26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
