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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+8.74vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.90+5.54vs Predicted
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3San Diego State University0.53+6.58vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.48+2.65vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-0.64vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.99-1.58vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.40+6.29vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.22+2.50vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.25+4.50vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.21+0.63vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii0.12+0.10vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.66-3.61vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.27+4.22vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.43-4.10vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95+1.91vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley0.35-6.20vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-1.13-0.46vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-0.33-5.06vs Predicted
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19University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17-6.87vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis-0.58-4.20vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-1.39-3.35vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-1.46-3.67vs Predicted
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23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.80-3.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.9%1st Place
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7.54University of Southern California0.906.8%1st Place
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9.58San Diego State University0.534.5%1st Place
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6.65University of California at Los Angeles1.489.0%1st Place
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4.36University of California at Santa Barbara1.7818.5%1st Place
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4.42California Poly Maritime Academy1.9917.6%1st Place
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13.29University of California at Santa Cruz-0.401.8%1st Place
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10.5University of California at San Diego0.222.8%1st Place
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13.5University of California at Berkeley-0.252.1%1st Place
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10.63University of Southern California0.213.6%1st Place
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11.1University of Hawaii0.123.2%1st Place
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8.39Arizona State University0.666.1%1st Place
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17.22San Diego State University-1.270.5%1st Place
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9.9University of California at Los Angeles0.435.2%1st Place
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16.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.950.9%1st Place
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9.8University of California at Berkeley0.354.2%1st Place
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16.54University of California at San Diego-1.130.9%1st Place
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12.94University of California at San Diego-0.332.3%1st Place
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12.13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.173.2%1st Place
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15.8University of California at Davis-0.580.9%1st Place
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17.65University of California at Los Angeles-1.390.9%1st Place
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18.33University of California at San Diego-1.460.6%1st Place
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19.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.800.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Case | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 18.5% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brock Paquin | 17.6% | 15.2% | 15.2% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Svenja Leonard | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Miles Kirkbride | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 10.4% |
| Zack Taylor | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Macy Rowe | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 10.3% |
| Enzo Cremers | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% |
| Sebastien Franck | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| karl zoghbi | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Jonah Brees | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.4% |
| Deven Douglas | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 14.8% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 16.1% | 19.2% |
| Ryan Schackel | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 16.0% | 27.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.