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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+2.68vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley-0.25+5.19vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+1.23vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-1.11+6.76vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.30+0.53vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.33+1.42vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University-0.91+3.00vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-0.62+0.62vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17-1.78vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-1.73+3.53vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-1.41+1.06vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.41+0.18vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.24-1.73vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.60-1.04vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.93-0.75vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-1.19vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-2.11-2.01vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-2.00-3.34vs Predicted
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19University of Southern California-1.45-6.77vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis-2.15-4.78vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-3.08-2.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.68California Poly Maritime Academy0.9121.1%1st Place
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7.19University of California at Berkeley-0.257.2%1st Place
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4.23Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.7219.0%1st Place
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10.76University of California at San Diego-1.112.5%1st Place
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5.53University of California at Santa Cruz0.3010.9%1st Place
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7.42University of California at Berkeley-0.337.0%1st Place
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10.0Arizona State University-0.912.8%1st Place
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8.62Arizona State University-0.625.0%1st Place
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7.22University of California at Santa Cruz-0.176.5%1st Place
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13.53University of California at Los Angeles-1.731.5%1st Place
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12.06University of California at Davis-1.411.7%1st Place
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12.18University of California at San Diego-1.412.1%1st Place
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11.27San Diego State University-1.243.0%1st Place
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12.96University of California at Los Angeles-1.601.8%1st Place
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14.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.931.6%1st Place
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14.81University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.2%1st Place
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14.99Arizona State University-2.110.9%1st Place
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14.66University of California at Los Angeles-2.000.9%1st Place
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12.23University of Southern California-1.452.6%1st Place
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15.22University of California at Davis-2.150.6%1st Place
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18.21University of California at San Diego-3.080.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner Skewes | 21.1% | 19.5% | 16.6% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Jacobs | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 19.0% | 15.2% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Summer Drake | 10.9% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fiona Wu | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Kenealy | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Hirz | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dante Massaro | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bistras | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.3% |
| Melody Quevedo | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Ryan Giorgianni | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| John Gallagher | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| Alexis Di Stefano | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 6.6% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 9.0% |
| Hayden shaw | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 9.5% |
| Siobhan Dornfried | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| Liam Hoole | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Bryson Dort | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.5% |
| natasha chiotis | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 43.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.