← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+2.78vs Predicted
-
2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.72+2.39vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Berkeley-0.25+4.23vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Cruz0.30+1.44vs Predicted
-
5-0.33+2.73vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17+0.99vs Predicted
-
7Arizona State University-0.62+1.79vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Los Angeles-0.96+2.47vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Davis-1.41+3.15vs Predicted
-
10Arizona State University-0.91+0.09vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Los Angeles-1.60+1.79vs Predicted
-
12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.93+2.29vs Predicted
-
13University of Southern California-1.45-0.63vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Los Angeles-2.10+0.79vs Predicted
-
15University of California at San Diego-1.11-3.98vs Predicted
-
16University of California at San Diego-1.41-3.85vs Predicted
-
17Arizona State University-2.11-1.92vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Davis-2.15-2.87vs Predicted
-
19San Diego State University-1.09-8.34vs Predicted
-
20University of California at Los Angeles-2.96-2.42vs Predicted
-
21University of California at San Diego-3.08-2.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.78California Poly Maritime Academy0.9121.4%1st Place
-
4.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.7216.8%1st Place
-
7.23University of California at Berkeley-0.256.6%1st Place
-
5.44University of California at Santa Cruz0.3011.1%1st Place
-
7.73-0.335.5%1st Place
-
6.99University of California at Santa Cruz-0.178.5%1st Place
-
8.79Arizona State University-0.624.7%1st Place
-
10.47University of California at Los Angeles-0.963.0%1st Place
-
12.15University of California at Davis-1.412.1%1st Place
-
10.09Arizona State University-0.913.2%1st Place
-
12.79University of California at Los Angeles-1.601.7%1st Place
-
14.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.931.4%1st Place
-
12.37University of Southern California-1.452.2%1st Place
-
14.79University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.2%1st Place
-
11.02University of California at San Diego-1.113.0%1st Place
-
12.15University of California at San Diego-1.411.9%1st Place
-
15.08Arizona State University-2.111.3%1st Place
-
15.13University of California at Davis-2.150.7%1st Place
-
10.66San Diego State University-1.092.9%1st Place
-
17.58University of California at Los Angeles-2.960.4%1st Place
-
18.07University of California at San Diego-3.080.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner Skewes | 21.4% | 18.1% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 16.8% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Jacobs | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Summer Drake | 11.1% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fiona Wu | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dante Massaro | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Hirz | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Conrad Kistler | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Melody Quevedo | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Sean Kenealy | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| John Gallagher | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Alexis Di Stefano | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 4.4% |
| Liam Hoole | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 7.1% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Hayden shaw | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 7.3% |
| Bryson Dort | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 8.1% |
| Adeline Spencer | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Fadia Nitrosso | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 20.1% | 29.4% |
| natasha chiotis | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 18.9% | 36.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.