Race 1A

lake-virginia-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Emma Shakespeare 12.6% 10.8% 10.5% 10.5% 9.5% 8.0% 9.2% 7.3% 7.0% 4.3% 4.5% 3.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
Humberto Porrata 10.0% 10.3% 11.0% 10.5% 9.5% 9.8% 9.1% 8.2% 5.5% 6.5% 4.4% 2.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Sandra Heilshorn 2.3% 3.0% 2.3% 3.2% 3.8% 3.6% 4.5% 6.0% 6.4% 6.9% 8.0% 10.3% 11.1% 11.6% 11.1% 6.1%
Eden Nykamp 14.2% 13.0% 12.4% 11.7% 10.4% 11.1% 6.6% 5.9% 5.5% 3.8% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Jordan Byrd 8.8% 9.3% 10.5% 8.9% 8.9% 9.1% 8.1% 8.3% 8.2% 5.5% 5.1% 5.0% 2.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Kaitlyn Liebel 5.9% 5.1% 5.9% 5.9% 6.3% 6.2% 8.2% 8.1% 8.8% 8.8% 8.5% 8.5% 6.3% 4.2% 2.7% 0.8%
Connor Teague 1.8% 2.5% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 3.6% 4.0% 4.0% 4.6% 7.0% 7.5% 8.9% 11.7% 11.9% 12.6% 11.2%
Jacob Usher 13.2% 13.1% 11.6% 11.1% 10.5% 7.3% 8.7% 8.0% 5.2% 5.1% 3.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Lily Schwartz 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 4.7% 5.0% 5.8% 5.9% 8.8% 8.3% 9.0% 10.5% 11.6% 9.5% 5.6%
Hudson Jenkins 5.2% 4.5% 6.2% 5.2% 6.7% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 8.6% 8.8% 8.4% 7.9% 7.0% 4.5% 2.9% 0.8%
Anthon Funderburk 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 2.2% 2.6% 3.8% 3.8% 4.3% 4.3% 6.2% 8.9% 11.3% 13.2% 15.7% 17.2%
Naomi Sterlingsdottir 2.1% 2.7% 2.4% 2.6% 3.2% 3.6% 3.6% 4.3% 6.0% 6.5% 8.2% 8.6% 11.2% 13.6% 12.0% 9.4%
Brent Penwarden 10.5% 10.5% 8.6% 10.3% 10.9% 9.2% 7.9% 7.9% 6.9% 5.7% 5.1% 3.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Henry Parker 1.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.8% 4.3% 5.9% 6.7% 7.8% 9.8% 10.7% 12.3% 13.1% 9.6%
Gregory Walters 6.7% 7.9% 7.0% 7.9% 7.4% 8.3% 7.7% 8.5% 8.8% 8.6% 7.3% 5.5% 4.1% 2.5% 1.4% 0.4%
Julian Drake 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 2.4% 2.9% 4.2% 6.0% 7.2% 10.1% 17.6% 38.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.