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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.48+3.44vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.20+3.25vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.86+3.81vs Predicted
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4Boston College1.95+2.66vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University0.62+6.02vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University0.46+3.78vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy2.05-0.89vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.94-0.99vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.59-0.44vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.54-0.72vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.08-1.01vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College0.33+0.28vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-2.50vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy-0.31+0.09vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University0.73-3.79vs Predicted
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16Yale University1.25-5.59vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.16-7.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.44Harvard University2.4817.1%1st Place
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5.25Boston College2.2012.6%1st Place
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6.81Brown University1.868.2%1st Place
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6.66Boston College1.957.8%1st Place
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11.02Roger Williams University0.622.5%1st Place
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9.78Salve Regina University0.464.0%1st Place
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6.11U. S. Military Academy2.0510.2%1st Place
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7.01Fordham University1.947.9%1st Place
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8.56Northeastern University1.595.3%1st Place
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9.28Tufts University1.544.5%1st Place
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9.99Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.083.6%1st Place
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12.28Dartmouth College0.332.2%1st Place
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10.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.2%1st Place
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14.09Maine Maritime Academy-0.310.9%1st Place
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11.21Northeastern University0.732.5%1st Place
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10.41Yale University1.253.5%1st Place
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9.59Tufts University1.164.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 17.1% | 16.9% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 12.6% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 7.6% |
| Emil Tullberg | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.4% |
| James Paul | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Bryan Trammell | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Emily Scherer | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.3% |
| Griffin Lapham | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 14.8% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% |
| Griffen Horne | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 14.5% | 41.8% |
| Liam Lawless | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 5.5% |
| Adam Larzelere | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 2.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.