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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.20+4.20vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.48+2.42vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.86+3.83vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.08+5.94vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.25+5.32vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.54+3.24vs Predicted
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7Boston College1.95-0.55vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy2.05-2.00vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University0.46+0.69vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University0.62+0.90vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.07-1.51vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-1.65vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College0.33-0.61vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University0.73-2.78vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy-0.31-0.93vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.94-9.10vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.16-7.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.2Boston College2.2013.9%1st Place
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4.42Harvard University2.4817.2%1st Place
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6.83Brown University1.868.4%1st Place
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9.94Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.083.4%1st Place
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10.32Yale University1.253.1%1st Place
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9.24Tufts University1.544.0%1st Place
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6.45Boston College1.959.0%1st Place
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6.0U. S. Military Academy2.059.9%1st Place
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9.69Salve Regina University0.463.5%1st Place
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10.9Roger Williams University0.622.9%1st Place
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9.49Northeastern University1.073.9%1st Place
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10.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.6%1st Place
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12.39Dartmouth College0.332.4%1st Place
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11.22Northeastern University0.732.4%1st Place
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14.07Maine Maritime Academy-0.311.1%1st Place
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6.9Fordham University1.947.5%1st Place
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9.59Tufts University1.163.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kirkman | 13.9% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 17.2% | 16.0% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Emily Scherer | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% |
| Bryan Trammell | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| James Paul | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emil Tullberg | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.1% |
| Griffin Lapham | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 17.2% | 16.9% |
| Liam Lawless | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 8.6% |
| Griffen Horne | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 40.6% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Adam Larzelere | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.