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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+8.39vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin3.36+9.85vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.95+6.30vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.74+1.89vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.98+3.92vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.93+7.86vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.74vs Predicted
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8Yale University4.55-1.54vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.49+2.12vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University4.01-1.09vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-1.54vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University4.71-5.88vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan2.86+1.39vs Predicted
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14Washington College3.07-0.88vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-5.74vs Predicted
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16Tufts University4.08-7.44vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College3.24-4.74vs Predicted
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18University of Southern California2.93-4.13vs Predicted
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19Harvard University3.16-6.28vs Predicted
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20U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-6.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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11.85University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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9.3College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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5.89Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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8.92Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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13.86University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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10.74U. S. Naval Academy3.670.0%1st Place
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6.46Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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11.12University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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8.91Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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9.46Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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6.12Roger Williams University4.710.1%1st Place
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14.39University of Michigan2.860.0%1st Place
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13.12Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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9.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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8.56Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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12.26Eckerd College3.240.0%1st Place
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13.87University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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12.72Harvard University3.160.0%1st Place
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13.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% |
| Ben Spector | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Chris Barnard | 12.1% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Colin Smith | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| James Simmons | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 12.9% |
| Michael Grove | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Graham Landy | 9.7% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Will Stocke | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| Dillon Paiva | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Sommer | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Alec Anderson | 12.2% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Graham | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 17.7% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 9.2% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| William Haeger | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Wesley Byrne | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% |
| Matthew Hecht | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 14.0% |
| Gram Slattery | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% |
| Andrew Bates | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 15.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.