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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.98+8.10vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.55+4.76vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+6.84vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.49+7.42vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University4.01+4.03vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University4.71+0.16vs Predicted
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7Tufts University4.08+2.05vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.95+1.08vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+0.25vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University4.74-4.02vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.35vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California2.93+2.10vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan2.86+1.54vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College3.24-1.50vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.93-1.16vs Predicted
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16Washington College3.07-2.78vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.79-7.07vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-8.33vs Predicted
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19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-5.23vs Predicted
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20University of Wisconsin3.36-7.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.1Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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6.76Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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9.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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11.42University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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9.03Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.16Roger Williams University4.710.1%1st Place
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9.05Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.08College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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9.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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5.98Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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10.65U. S. Naval Academy3.670.0%1st Place
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14.1University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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14.54University of Michigan2.860.0%1st Place
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12.5Eckerd College3.240.0%1st Place
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13.84University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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13.22Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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9.93Harvard University3.790.0%1st Place
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9.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.0%1st Place
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13.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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12.1University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Smith | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| Graham Landy | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Will Stocke | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% |
| Dillon Paiva | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Alec Anderson | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Haeger | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Ben Spector | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Chris Barnard | 11.6% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% |
| Matthew Hecht | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 15.3% |
| Matthew Graham | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 17.7% |
| Wesley Byrne | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% |
| James Simmons | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 15.1% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.0% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Andrew Sommer | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 12.5% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.