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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University4.71+5.02vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+7.67vs Predicted
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3Tufts University4.08+5.89vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+5.46vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.93+8.81vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90+3.61vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University4.74-0.79vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.98+0.97vs Predicted
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9Yale University4.55-2.37vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University4.01-0.93vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.79-0.91vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin3.36+0.23vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.17vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.67-3.40vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.95-5.72vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College3.24-3.46vs Predicted
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17Washington College3.07-3.89vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida3.49-6.50vs Predicted
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19University of Michigan2.86-4.87vs Predicted
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20University of Rhode Island2.93-5.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.02Roger Williams University4.710.1%1st Place
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9.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.89Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.0%1st Place
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13.81University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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9.61Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.0%1st Place
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6.21Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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8.97Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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6.63Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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9.07Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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10.09Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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12.23University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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14.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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10.6U. S. Naval Academy3.670.0%1st Place
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9.28College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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12.54Eckerd College3.240.0%1st Place
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13.11Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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11.5University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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14.13University of Michigan2.860.0%1st Place
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14.03University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Anderson | 12.7% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 6.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| William Haeger | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Matthew Hecht | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 12.8% |
| Andrew Sommer | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% |
| Chris Barnard | 9.7% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Smith | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Graham Landy | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% |
| Andrew Bates | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 16.4% |
| Michael Grove | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| Ben Spector | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Wesley Byrne | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% |
| Will Stocke | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% |
| Matthew Graham | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 14.3% |
| James Simmons | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 15.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.