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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.11+5.53vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+8.31vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.18+7.78vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.74+4.13vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.05+6.14vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.80+1.97vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.51+2.44vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+0.27vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81+3.27vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.37-0.21vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.95-3.67vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College2.89+0.21vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.69-4.32vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University3.82-6.30vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.45-1.28vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan3.02-4.62vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin2.85-5.01vs Predicted
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18University of Miami1.63-1.20vs Predicted
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19University of South Florida3.24-8.72vs Predicted
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20U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-4.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.53College of Charleston4.110.1%1st Place
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10.31St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.0%1st Place
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10.78University of Rhode Island3.180.0%1st Place
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8.13U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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11.14Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.97Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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9.44Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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8.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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12.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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9.79Tufts University3.370.0%1st Place
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7.33Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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12.21Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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8.68Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.7Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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13.72Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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11.38University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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11.99University of Wisconsin2.850.0%1st Place
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16.8University of Miami1.630.0%1st Place
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10.28University of South Florida3.240.0%1st Place
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15.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Banholzer | 11.1% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Ian Liberty | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| Alex Whipple | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Mary Hall | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Alex Post | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Louis Padnos | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Ford | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% |
| William Hutchings | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| William Macdonald | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tony Collins | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 15.2% | 10.8% |
| Ryan Seago | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| Andrew Fox | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 4.2% |
| Kara Voss | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 40.4% |
| Fernando Monllor | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Samuel Watterson | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 16.9% | 20.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.