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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.82+6.73vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston4.11+4.55vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+4.07vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.95+3.30vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.51+4.18vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.80+1.97vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.74+1.46vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.24+2.21vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.37+0.67vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.98+1.68vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College2.89+1.08vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.69-3.50vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81-0.33vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island3.18-3.37vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin2.85-2.87vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.05-4.84vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan3.02-5.74vs Predicted
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18University of Miami1.63-1.21vs Predicted
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19Washington College2.45-5.28vs Predicted
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20U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-4.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.73Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.55College of Charleston4.110.1%1st Place
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7.07St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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7.3Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.18Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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7.97Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.46U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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10.21University of South Florida3.240.0%1st Place
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9.67Tufts University3.370.0%1st Place
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11.68Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
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12.08Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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8.5Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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12.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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10.63University of Rhode Island3.180.0%1st Place
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12.13University of Wisconsin2.850.0%1st Place
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11.16Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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11.26University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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16.79University of Miami1.630.0%1st Place
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13.72Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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15.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Forrer | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Banholzer | 11.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alex Post | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 6.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Mary Hall | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Fernando Monllor | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| William Hutchings | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Stewart Draheim | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
| Tony Collins | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 3.9% |
| Judge Ryan | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Ford | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.3% |
| Alex Whipple | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Andrew Fox | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Kara Voss | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 15.1% | 41.3% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 10.3% |
| Samuel Watterson | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 12.3% | 15.3% | 20.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.