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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.05+4.65vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+6.28vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.89+3.29vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.64+3.21vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.84+5.86vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.77+4.78vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.90+3.40vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.49+0.08vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin3.04+0.55vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College2.70+1.02vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-2.88vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.43-3.61vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.28-0.31vs Predicted
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14University of Minnesota2.53-1.95vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.41-6.88vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-2.23vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.71-5.94vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.41-0.15vs Predicted
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19Old Dominion University2.91-9.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.65College of Charleston4.050.1%1st Place
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8.28Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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6.29Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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7.21Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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10.86Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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10.78Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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10.4U. S. Naval Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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8.08University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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9.55University of Wisconsin3.040.0%1st Place
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11.02Eckerd College2.700.0%1st Place
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8.12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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8.39Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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12.69University of Miami2.280.0%1st Place
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12.05University of Minnesota2.530.0%1st Place
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8.12Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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13.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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11.06Washington College2.710.0%1st Place
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17.85University of Michigan0.410.0%1st Place
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9.82Old Dominion University2.910.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrique Arathoon | 11.5% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martinez | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Cam Cullman | 10.8% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 1.1% |
| Henry Vogel | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 2.6% |
| Philip Youngberg | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Christopher Stocke | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Connor Trepton | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 0.6% |
| Timothy Siemers | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.5% |
| David Alfonso | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Marek Zaleski | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ben Jassin | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 4.9% |
| Wheeler Morris | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 2.6% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Austin Neuman | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 18.1% | 10.1% |
| Charles Nunn | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 2.3% |
| Austin Stevens | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 11.0% | 71.3% |
| Joseph David | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.