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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+2.38vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00+1.72vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99+0.81vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.78+0.11vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.18+0.62vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-2.02vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.21-3.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.9719.4%1st Place
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3.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.0016.2%1st Place
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3.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.9915.2%1st Place
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4.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.7812.2%1st Place
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5.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.184.2%1st Place
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3.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.9113.7%1st Place
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3.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.2118.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 19.4% | 18.1% | 17.5% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 5.2% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 16.2% | 15.9% | 16.0% | 15.2% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 9.1% |
| Thomas Walker | 15.2% | 15.7% | 15.2% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 15.2% | 9.2% |
| Collin Porter | 12.2% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 16.4% | 20.1% | 10.3% |
| Owen Harrod | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 15.2% | 50.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 13.7% | 13.2% | 14.4% | 15.8% | 17.1% | 14.6% | 11.2% |
| Pete McGriff | 18.9% | 18.4% | 17.8% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.