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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.51+6.31vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+4.81vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.79+5.96vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.12+4.83vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University1.78+4.34vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.95+3.88vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.55+3.74vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-0.59vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.68+0.61vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.12+2.19vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.73-2.51vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.81-3.29vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.82-3.29vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.32-6.27vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.89-3.90vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.36-1.36vs Predicted
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17Florida State University1.62-6.37vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-9.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.31SUNY Maritime College2.518.6%1st Place
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6.81University of Rhode Island2.7810.7%1st Place
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8.96Boston University1.795.2%1st Place
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8.83Tufts University2.126.1%1st Place
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9.34North Carolina State University1.785.3%1st Place
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9.88Connecticut College1.954.8%1st Place
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10.74Jacksonville University1.553.8%1st Place
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7.41University of California at Santa Barbara2.048.9%1st Place
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9.61Cornell University1.684.8%1st Place
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12.19University of Michigan1.122.6%1st Place
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8.49Webb Institute1.736.6%1st Place
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8.71Old Dominion University1.816.9%1st Place
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9.71George Washington University1.824.5%1st Place
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7.73University of Miami2.327.4%1st Place
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11.1Fordham University1.893.1%1st Place
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14.64University of Wisconsin0.360.8%1st Place
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10.63Florida State University1.623.3%1st Place
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8.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Adam Larson | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Walter Henry | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.0% |
| Matthew King | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 13.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.7% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 42.1% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.7% |
| Will Murray | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.