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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.51+6.44vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.81+6.99vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+6.46vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.82+5.69vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+1.89vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.98vs Predicted
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7North Carolina State University1.78+2.32vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.79+1.00vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.95+0.81vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.12+2.15vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.73-2.56vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.32-4.50vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin0.36+1.65vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.55-3.44vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-7.42vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.89-4.81vs Predicted
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17Florida State University1.62-6.54vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.12-9.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.44SUNY Maritime College2.517.8%1st Place
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8.99Old Dominion University1.815.9%1st Place
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9.46Cornell University1.685.8%1st Place
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9.69George Washington University1.824.6%1st Place
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6.89University of Rhode Island2.7810.2%1st Place
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8.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.5%1st Place
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9.32North Carolina State University1.785.3%1st Place
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9.0Boston University1.795.4%1st Place
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9.81Connecticut College1.955.1%1st Place
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12.15University of Michigan1.123.1%1st Place
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8.44Webb Institute1.737.1%1st Place
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7.5University of Miami2.327.4%1st Place
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14.65University of Wisconsin0.361.8%1st Place
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10.56Jacksonville University1.553.4%1st Place
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7.58University of California at Santa Barbara2.048.1%1st Place
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11.19Fordham University1.893.5%1st Place
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10.46Florida State University1.624.8%1st Place
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8.89Tufts University2.125.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Adam Larson | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Walter Henry | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 14.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 40.9% |
| Matthew King | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 4.8% |
| Chris Kayda | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% |
| Joey Meagher | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.