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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.82+8.76vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.51+5.29vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.79+5.88vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.32+3.85vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.12+3.96vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+0.87vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.89+4.04vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.78+1.24vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.81-0.09vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.95-0.07vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.55-0.50vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-4.52vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.68-3.42vs Predicted
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14Florida State University1.62-3.38vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.73-6.78vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-7.01vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.12-4.82vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.36-3.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.76George Washington University1.824.9%1st Place
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7.29SUNY Maritime College2.518.5%1st Place
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8.88Boston University1.796.3%1st Place
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7.85University of Miami2.327.5%1st Place
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8.96Tufts University2.125.5%1st Place
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6.87University of Rhode Island2.789.3%1st Place
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11.04Fordham University1.893.9%1st Place
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9.24North Carolina State University1.785.1%1st Place
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8.91Old Dominion University1.816.1%1st Place
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9.93Connecticut College1.954.7%1st Place
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10.5Jacksonville University1.553.9%1st Place
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7.48University of California at Santa Barbara2.047.1%1st Place
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9.58Cornell University1.684.5%1st Place
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10.62Florida State University1.624.5%1st Place
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8.22Webb Institute1.737.4%1st Place
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8.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.9%1st Place
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12.18University of Michigan1.123.6%1st Place
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14.68University of Wisconsin0.361.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Tyler Mowry | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% |
| Adam Larson | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Walter Henry | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| Matthew King | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% |
| Chris Kayda | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% |
| Joey Meagher | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 6.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Will Murray | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| Joe Serpa | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 13.2% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 14.1% | 40.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.