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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Miami2.32+6.72vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+5.58vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.12+5.95vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.78+5.42vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+1.80vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.95+3.79vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.51+0.49vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.79+0.72vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.68+0.54vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.81-0.98vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.73-2.75vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.55-1.61vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-4.07vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.82-4.47vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.89-3.57vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.36-1.40vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.12-4.71vs Predicted
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18Florida State University1.62-7.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.72University of Miami2.326.9%1st Place
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7.58University of California at Santa Barbara2.047.4%1st Place
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8.95Tufts University2.125.2%1st Place
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9.42North Carolina State University1.785.0%1st Place
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6.8University of Rhode Island2.789.8%1st Place
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9.79Connecticut College1.954.9%1st Place
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7.49SUNY Maritime College2.518.3%1st Place
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8.72Boston University1.797.1%1st Place
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9.54Cornell University1.685.8%1st Place
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9.02Old Dominion University1.815.6%1st Place
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8.25Webb Institute1.737.1%1st Place
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10.39Jacksonville University1.554.2%1st Place
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8.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.8%1st Place
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9.53George Washington University1.825.0%1st Place
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11.43Fordham University1.893.3%1st Place
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14.6University of Wisconsin0.361.5%1st Place
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12.29University of Michigan1.122.8%1st Place
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10.56Florida State University1.624.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlee Kohl | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Adam Larson | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Walter Henry | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Mowry | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Matthew King | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 5.4% |
| Will Murray | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.6% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 41.1% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 13.5% |
| Joey Meagher | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.