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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.73+7.43vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+4.96vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+4.59vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.81+4.88vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.79+3.91vs Predicted
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6University of Miami2.32+1.66vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.89+4.56vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.68+1.64vs Predicted
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9Florida State University1.62+1.40vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.19vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.12+1.40vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.12-3.27vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.95-3.19vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.82-4.42vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.51-7.76vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.78-6.74vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.55-6.54vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.36-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.43Webb Institute1.736.5%1st Place
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6.96University of Rhode Island2.788.8%1st Place
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7.59University of California at Santa Barbara2.047.6%1st Place
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8.88Old Dominion University1.815.9%1st Place
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8.91Boston University1.795.8%1st Place
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7.66University of Miami2.328.5%1st Place
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11.56Fordham University1.892.6%1st Place
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9.64Cornell University1.685.1%1st Place
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10.4Florida State University1.623.9%1st Place
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8.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.5%1st Place
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12.4University of Michigan1.122.5%1st Place
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8.73Tufts University2.126.9%1st Place
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9.81Connecticut College1.954.6%1st Place
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9.58George Washington University1.825.2%1st Place
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7.24SUNY Maritime College2.519.7%1st Place
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9.26North Carolina State University1.785.5%1st Place
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10.46Jacksonville University1.554.6%1st Place
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14.71University of Wisconsin0.360.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Chris Kayda | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 9.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% |
| Will Murray | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 13.7% |
| Trevor Davis | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Walter Henry | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Adam Larson | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.8% |
| Matthew King | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.1% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 40.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.