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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+7.99vs Predicted
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2Florida State University1.62+8.58vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.78+6.22vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.73+4.22vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.89+6.29vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.57+3.95vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+0.59vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.68+1.35vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.12-0.59vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.82-0.34vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.12+1.12vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.95-2.03vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.51-5.77vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.32-6.16vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.78-8.26vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.55-5.58vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.36-2.31vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.79-9.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.2%1st Place
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10.58Florida State University1.624.3%1st Place
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9.22North Carolina State University1.785.9%1st Place
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8.22Webb Institute1.737.2%1st Place
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11.29Fordham University1.892.9%1st Place
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9.95Old Dominion University1.574.5%1st Place
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7.59University of California at Santa Barbara2.047.8%1st Place
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9.35Cornell University1.685.0%1st Place
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8.41Tufts University2.125.3%1st Place
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9.66George Washington University1.825.5%1st Place
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12.12University of Michigan1.122.8%1st Place
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9.97Connecticut College1.955.0%1st Place
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7.23SUNY Maritime College2.519.2%1st Place
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7.84University of Miami2.327.8%1st Place
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6.74University of Rhode Island2.7810.2%1st Place
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10.42Jacksonville University1.554.6%1st Place
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14.69University of Wisconsin0.361.4%1st Place
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8.74Boston University1.795.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Joey Meagher | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% |
| Adam Larson | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 8.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.5% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 14.1% |
| Walter Henry | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Matthew King | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 40.6% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.