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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.93+9.54vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.95+4.62vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.79+4.30vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont3.51+4.50vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.37+3.88vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.05+4.43vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-0.80vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan3.02+2.16vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.00+1.71vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.29-0.84vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.96-0.24vs Predicted
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12Boston College4.12-5.89vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.93-2.12vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.39-4.95vs Predicted
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15Columbia University2.43-2.43vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.80-8.64vs Predicted
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17Brown University3.69-9.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.54University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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6.62Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.790.1%1st Place
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8.5University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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8.88Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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10.43Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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6.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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10.16University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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10.71Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
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9.16Yale University3.290.0%1st Place
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10.76Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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6.11Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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10.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.930.0%1st Place
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9.05Dartmouth College3.390.1%1st Place
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12.57Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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7.36Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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7.77Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Simmons | 4.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.1% |
| William Macdonald | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Philip Crain | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% |
| William Hutchings | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 3.9% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% |
| Avery Fanning | 10.6% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Seago | 4.9% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.6% |
| Cameron Fraser | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% |
| Emily Billing | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% |
| Raul Rios | 10.2% | 14.7% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Arielle DeLisser | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 11.0% |
| Hunter Johnstone | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| Irene Jacqz | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 26.2% |
| Hans Henken | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.