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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+7.98vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.51+5.51vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+6.45vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.78+5.10vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.82+4.62vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.55+4.30vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.32+0.72vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.73+0.22vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.95+0.67vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.79-1.51vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.89+0.32vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.57-2.05vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.12-4.13vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin0.36+0.74vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-7.60vs Predicted
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16Florida State University1.62-5.40vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.12-4.73vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island2.78-11.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.3%1st Place
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7.51SUNY Maritime College2.517.5%1st Place
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9.45Cornell University1.685.1%1st Place
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9.1North Carolina State University1.786.2%1st Place
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9.62George Washington University1.825.1%1st Place
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10.3Jacksonville University1.554.0%1st Place
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7.72University of Miami2.327.3%1st Place
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8.22Webb Institute1.737.6%1st Place
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9.67Connecticut College1.955.5%1st Place
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8.49Boston University1.796.4%1st Place
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11.32Fordham University1.893.4%1st Place
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9.95Old Dominion University1.575.1%1st Place
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8.87Tufts University2.126.2%1st Place
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14.74University of Wisconsin0.361.1%1st Place
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7.4University of California at Santa Barbara2.048.2%1st Place
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10.6Florida State University1.623.5%1st Place
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12.27University of Michigan1.122.6%1st Place
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6.8University of Rhode Island2.789.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Adam Larson | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Matthew King | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Walter Henry | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% |
| Tyler Mowry | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 8.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 40.8% |
| Chris Kayda | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 14.7% | 13.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.