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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.51+6.36vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University1.78+6.88vs Predicted
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3Florida State University1.62+7.25vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University1.55+5.90vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.57+4.76vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.68+3.25vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.78-0.56vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-0.64vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.73-0.85vs Predicted
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10University of Miami2.32-2.57vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-2.43vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan1.12-0.14vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.82-3.65vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.12-5.29vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.79-6.70vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.89-5.11vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.60-2.93vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.36-3.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.36SUNY Maritime College2.518.2%1st Place
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8.88North Carolina State University1.786.2%1st Place
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10.25Florida State University1.625.0%1st Place
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9.9Jacksonville University1.554.5%1st Place
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9.76Old Dominion University1.574.7%1st Place
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9.25Cornell University1.685.0%1st Place
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6.44University of Rhode Island2.7811.3%1st Place
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7.36University of California at Santa Barbara2.048.9%1st Place
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8.15Webb Institute1.736.3%1st Place
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7.43University of Miami2.327.2%1st Place
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8.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.3%1st Place
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11.86University of Michigan1.122.6%1st Place
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9.35George Washington University1.824.5%1st Place
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8.71Tufts University2.125.1%1st Place
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8.3Boston University1.797.2%1st Place
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10.89Fordham University1.894.3%1st Place
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14.07Connecticut College0.601.2%1st Place
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14.48University of Wisconsin0.361.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Adam Larson | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Joey Meagher | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 4.2% |
| Matthew King | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Chris Kayda | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 10.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Mowry | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 16.6% | 28.0% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 34.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.