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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+7.63vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.51+5.20vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.73+5.12vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.32+3.57vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.79+3.23vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+0.56vs Predicted
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7North Carolina State University1.78+2.00vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.68+1.43vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.55+0.96vs Predicted
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10Florida State University1.62+0.17vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.12-2.56vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-4.86vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.60+1.10vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.57-4.30vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.36-0.54vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.89-4.96vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.82-7.64vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan1.12-6.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.2%1st Place
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7.2SUNY Maritime College2.519.5%1st Place
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8.12Webb Institute1.737.4%1st Place
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7.57University of Miami2.327.4%1st Place
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8.23Boston University1.797.1%1st Place
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6.56University of Rhode Island2.7811.5%1st Place
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9.0North Carolina State University1.785.5%1st Place
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9.43Cornell University1.685.6%1st Place
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9.96Jacksonville University1.553.9%1st Place
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10.17Florida State University1.624.0%1st Place
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8.44Tufts University2.125.3%1st Place
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7.14University of California at Santa Barbara2.048.7%1st Place
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14.1Connecticut College0.601.2%1st Place
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9.7Old Dominion University1.574.5%1st Place
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14.46University of Wisconsin0.361.1%1st Place
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11.04Fordham University1.893.2%1st Place
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9.36George Washington University1.825.1%1st Place
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11.88University of Michigan1.122.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.5% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Mowry | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Adam Larson | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| Matthew King | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| Joey Meagher | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 30.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 17.1% | 32.2% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.