← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Tufts University2.22+5.59vs Predicted
-
2University of Miami1.93+6.60vs Predicted
-
3Webb Institute1.43+6.37vs Predicted
-
4George Washington University1.86+4.50vs Predicted
-
5Boston University1.65+4.06vs Predicted
-
6Florida State University1.95+2.66vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College0.42+0.75vs Predicted
-
8Jacksonville University-1.38+1.50vs Predicted
-
9University of Rhode Island1.61+0.57vs Predicted
-
10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.68vs Predicted
-
11Connecticut College1.45-0.84vs Predicted
-
12Cornell University1.79-3.66vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University1.62-3.79vs Predicted
-
14Old Dominion University1.59-4.83vs Predicted
-
15University of Wisconsin1.10-3.75vs Predicted
-
16North Carolina State University0.77-1.99vs Predicted
-
17University of Michigan0.50-3.52vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-8.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.59Tufts University2.2210.3%1st Place
-
8.6University of Miami1.936.4%1st Place
-
9.37Webb Institute1.434.3%1st Place
-
8.5George Washington University1.866.8%1st Place
-
9.06Boston University1.656.0%1st Place
-
8.66Florida State University1.956.2%1st Place
-
7.75SUNY Maritime College0.427.4%1st Place
-
9.5Jacksonville University-1.385.9%1st Place
-
9.57University of Rhode Island1.614.8%1st Place
-
8.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.6%1st Place
-
10.16Connecticut College1.454.5%1st Place
-
8.34Cornell University1.797.0%1st Place
-
9.21Fordham University1.625.3%1st Place
-
9.17Old Dominion University1.595.0%1st Place
-
11.25University of Wisconsin1.103.5%1st Place
-
14.01North Carolina State University0.771.9%1st Place
-
13.48University of Michigan0.501.8%1st Place
-
9.45University of California at Santa Barbara1.445.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | 10.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% |
| Owen Timms | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Micky Munns | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Emily Allen | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.7% |
| Miles Williams | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Harris Padegs | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Ryan Tatelbaum | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 7.6% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 30.1% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 26.2% |
| Ted McDonough | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.