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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.79+6.09vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.12+3.98vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.05+7.27vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.93+6.79vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+1.13vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.95+0.87vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.51+1.46vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.80-0.83vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.93+1.92vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.69-2.41vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.37-1.86vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.39-3.11vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.29-3.58vs Predicted
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14Columbia University2.43-1.25vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.96-4.44vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan3.02-5.53vs Predicted
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17Boston University3.00-6.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.790.1%1st Place
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5.98Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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10.27Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.79University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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6.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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6.87Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.46University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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7.17Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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10.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.930.0%1st Place
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7.59Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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9.14Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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8.89Dartmouth College3.390.0%1st Place
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9.42Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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12.75Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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10.56Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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10.47University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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10.51Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Crain | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Raul Rios | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.4% |
| James Simmons | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| William Macdonald | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| Hans Henken | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Arielle DeLisser | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.3% |
| Judge Ryan | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| William Hutchings | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Hunter Johnstone | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% |
| Emily Billing | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% |
| Irene Jacqz | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 26.6% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.3% |
| Cameron Fraser | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.