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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+7.39vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.65+7.14vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.79+5.18vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.86+4.49vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+4.73vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.22+0.50vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University-1.38+2.53vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.42-0.07vs Predicted
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9University of Miami1.93-0.44vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.62-1.10vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.61-1.49vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.59-2.59vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.45-2.80vs Predicted
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14Florida State University1.95-5.27vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.43-5.77vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.50-2.53vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.10-5.62vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University0.77-4.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.8%1st Place
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9.14Boston University1.656.0%1st Place
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8.18Cornell University1.797.4%1st Place
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8.49George Washington University1.867.3%1st Place
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9.73University of California at Santa Barbara1.444.8%1st Place
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6.5Tufts University2.2210.0%1st Place
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9.53Jacksonville University-1.384.9%1st Place
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7.93SUNY Maritime College0.427.0%1st Place
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8.56University of Miami1.937.0%1st Place
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8.9Fordham University1.626.2%1st Place
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9.51University of Rhode Island1.614.8%1st Place
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9.41Old Dominion University1.595.2%1st Place
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10.2Connecticut College1.454.0%1st Place
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8.73Florida State University1.956.2%1st Place
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9.23Webb Institute1.435.0%1st Place
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13.47University of Michigan0.502.1%1st Place
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11.38University of Wisconsin1.103.2%1st Place
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13.72North Carolina State University0.772.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Micky Munns | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Owen Timms | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Ted McDonough | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Emily Allen | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| Miles Williams | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.3% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Harris Padegs | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Brody Schwartz | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 25.9% |
| Ryan Tatelbaum | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.0% |
| Harrison Bailey | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 29.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.