← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1SUNY Maritime College1.88+7.08vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University2.22+4.25vs Predicted
-
3Boston University1.65+6.02vs Predicted
-
4Connecticut College1.45+6.08vs Predicted
-
5Fordham University1.62+4.01vs Predicted
-
6University of Rhode Island1.61+3.55vs Predicted
-
7University of Miami1.64+2.30vs Predicted
-
8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+0.30vs Predicted
-
9North Carolina State University0.77+4.53vs Predicted
-
10Florida State University1.95-1.48vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University1.79-3.01vs Predicted
-
12George Washington University1.27-2.00vs Predicted
-
13Jacksonville University-1.38-3.61vs Predicted
-
14Webb Institute1.43-5.09vs Predicted
-
15Old Dominion University1.59-6.14vs Predicted
-
16University of Michigan0.50-2.71vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-7.29vs Predicted
-
18University of Wisconsin1.10-6.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.08SUNY Maritime College1.887.3%1st Place
-
6.25Tufts University2.2211.3%1st Place
-
9.02Boston University1.655.9%1st Place
-
10.08Connecticut College1.454.5%1st Place
-
9.01Fordham University1.625.2%1st Place
-
9.55University of Rhode Island1.614.7%1st Place
-
9.3University of Miami1.645.3%1st Place
-
8.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.2%1st Place
-
13.53North Carolina State University0.771.5%1st Place
-
8.52Florida State University1.956.7%1st Place
-
7.99Cornell University1.797.0%1st Place
-
10.0George Washington University1.274.3%1st Place
-
9.39Jacksonville University-1.385.9%1st Place
-
8.91Webb Institute1.436.3%1st Place
-
8.86Old Dominion University1.596.5%1st Place
-
13.29University of Michigan0.501.8%1st Place
-
9.71University of California at Santa Barbara1.444.6%1st Place
-
11.19University of Wisconsin1.103.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 11.3% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Micky Munns | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Harris Padegs | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| Miles Williams | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Steven Hardee | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 27.3% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% |
| Emily Allen | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% |
| Diogo Silva | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 25.2% |
| Ted McDonough | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| Ryan Tatelbaum | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.