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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.95+5.59vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.69+5.69vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.37+6.04vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.23+5.62vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.12+0.98vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.05+4.52vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.80+0.36vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.00+2.27vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.93+2.06vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.29-0.76vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.79-3.46vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-5.69vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan3.02-2.37vs Predicted
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14Columbia University2.43-1.21vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont3.51-6.55vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College3.39-6.99vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island2.93-6.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.69Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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9.04Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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9.62Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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5.98Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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10.52Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.36Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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10.27Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
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11.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.930.0%1st Place
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9.24Yale University3.290.0%1st Place
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7.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.790.1%1st Place
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6.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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10.63University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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12.79Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.45University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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9.01Dartmouth College3.390.0%1st Place
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10.9University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Judge Ryan | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| William Hutchings | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% |
| Bryce Kopp | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% |
| Raul Rios | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% |
| Hans Henken | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Cameron Fraser | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% |
| Arielle DeLisser | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.8% |
| Emily Billing | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% |
| Philip Crain | 9.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Avery Fanning | 9.6% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Seago | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% |
| Irene Jacqz | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 26.0% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| Hunter Johnstone | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| James Simmons | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 11.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.