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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.43+7.97vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.22+4.34vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.65+5.87vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.62+5.04vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University-1.38+4.22vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+2.16vs Predicted
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7Florida State University1.95+1.51vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.27+2.11vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.59+0.43vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.92vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-1.30vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.61-2.70vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan0.50+0.38vs Predicted
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14University of Miami1.64-4.78vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin1.10-3.87vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.79-7.89vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University0.77-3.46vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.45-8.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.97Webb Institute1.436.5%1st Place
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6.34Tufts University2.2210.8%1st Place
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8.87Boston University1.656.6%1st Place
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9.04Fordham University1.625.9%1st Place
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9.22Jacksonville University-1.385.0%1st Place
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8.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.9%1st Place
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8.51Florida State University1.956.6%1st Place
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10.11George Washington University1.275.1%1st Place
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9.43Old Dominion University1.594.5%1st Place
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8.08SUNY Maritime College1.887.7%1st Place
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9.7University of California at Santa Barbara1.444.5%1st Place
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9.3University of Rhode Island1.616.2%1st Place
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13.38University of Michigan0.501.1%1st Place
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9.22University of Miami1.644.9%1st Place
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11.13University of Wisconsin1.103.8%1st Place
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8.11Cornell University1.797.4%1st Place
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13.54North Carolina State University0.772.4%1st Place
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9.9Connecticut College1.454.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payne Donaldson | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Micky Munns | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| Emily Allen | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% |
| Miles Williams | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 23.2% |
| Steven Hardee | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Ryan Tatelbaum | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| Harrison Bailey | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 27.5% |
| Harris Padegs | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.