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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.27+9.47vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+6.61vs Predicted
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3University of Miami1.64+6.25vs Predicted
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4Florida State University1.95+4.59vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.22+1.55vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.43+3.34vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.61+2.61vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.62+1.05vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.59+0.48vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University-1.38-0.59vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-1.33vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.45-1.79vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.79-4.87vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.67vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.65-6.09vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.40-5.69vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.50-3.51vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.10-6.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.47George Washington University1.275.2%1st Place
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8.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.0%1st Place
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9.25University of Miami1.645.0%1st Place
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8.59Florida State University1.956.2%1st Place
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6.55Tufts University2.2210.5%1st Place
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9.34Webb Institute1.435.5%1st Place
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9.61University of Rhode Island1.615.2%1st Place
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9.05Fordham University1.626.6%1st Place
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9.48Old Dominion University1.595.7%1st Place
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9.41Jacksonville University-1.385.5%1st Place
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9.67University of California at Santa Barbara1.445.0%1st Place
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10.21Connecticut College1.454.7%1st Place
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8.13Cornell University1.797.2%1st Place
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8.33SUNY Maritime College1.886.8%1st Place
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8.91Boston University1.656.0%1st Place
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10.31North Carolina State University1.403.5%1st Place
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13.49University of Michigan0.501.8%1st Place
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11.57University of Wisconsin1.102.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| Steven Hardee | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Miles Williams | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 3.7% |
| Emily Allen | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| Ted McDonough | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% |
| Harris Padegs | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Micky Munns | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Robert Chase | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 30.2% |
| Ryan Tatelbaum | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 12.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.