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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+6.93vs Predicted
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2University of Miami1.64+7.05vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.22+3.33vs Predicted
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4Florida State University1.95+4.37vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+2.99vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.65+2.95vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.43+2.09vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.62+0.97vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University-1.38+0.17vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.27+0.01vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.79-2.85vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.61-2.75vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-3.59vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.40-4.10vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.43-1.20vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.59-6.61vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.01-2.20vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.30-7.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.93SUNY Maritime College1.887.7%1st Place
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9.05University of Miami1.646.3%1st Place
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6.33Tufts University2.2210.8%1st Place
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8.37Florida State University1.956.3%1st Place
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7.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.0%1st Place
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8.95Boston University1.655.3%1st Place
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9.09Webb Institute1.435.5%1st Place
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8.97Fordham University1.625.5%1st Place
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9.17Jacksonville University-1.386.8%1st Place
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10.01George Washington University1.274.5%1st Place
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8.15Cornell University1.796.9%1st Place
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9.25University of Rhode Island1.614.3%1st Place
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9.41University of California at Santa Barbara1.445.7%1st Place
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9.9North Carolina State University1.405.1%1st Place
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13.8Connecticut College0.431.1%1st Place
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9.39Old Dominion University1.594.7%1st Place
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14.8University of Michigan-0.011.8%1st Place
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10.43University of Wisconsin1.304.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Steven Hardee | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Micky Munns | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Emily Allen | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.7% |
| Sophia Devling | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Miles Williams | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Ted McDonough | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Robert Chase | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| Jean-Michel Bus | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 18.1% | 25.1% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 14.3% | 41.8% |
| Quinn Kaiser | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 4.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.