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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.27+9.34vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.62+6.87vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.79+5.41vs Predicted
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4Florida State University1.95+4.80vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.22+1.57vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.43+3.52vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University-1.38+2.59vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.61+1.82vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+0.44vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.40+0.14vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.65vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.88-3.65vs Predicted
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13University of Miami1.93-4.34vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.65-4.74vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.45-4.67vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.59-6.97vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.30-6.54vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan-0.01-2.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.34George Washington University1.274.0%1st Place
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8.87Fordham University1.625.8%1st Place
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8.41Cornell University1.797.0%1st Place
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8.8Florida State University1.955.1%1st Place
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6.57Tufts University2.229.8%1st Place
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9.52Webb Institute1.435.3%1st Place
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9.59Jacksonville University-1.385.6%1st Place
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9.82University of Rhode Island1.615.4%1st Place
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9.44University of California at Santa Barbara1.445.1%1st Place
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10.14North Carolina State University1.404.8%1st Place
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8.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.7%1st Place
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8.35SUNY Maritime College1.887.1%1st Place
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8.66University of Miami1.937.3%1st Place
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9.26Boston University1.656.0%1st Place
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10.33Connecticut College1.454.5%1st Place
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9.03Old Dominion University1.595.3%1st Place
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10.46University of Wisconsin1.304.2%1st Place
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15.06University of Michigan-0.011.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 4.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| Emily Allen | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
| Miles Williams | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
| Ted McDonough | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| Robert Chase | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Micky Munns | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.1% |
| Harris Padegs | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.3% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| Quinn Kaiser | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 11.6% | 49.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.