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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.85+7.07vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.90+6.07vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.05+4.10vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+8.92vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+5.44vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.49+3.17vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.45+2.49vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.25+2.31vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+0.43vs Predicted
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10Stanford University2.61-1.71vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.73-3.87vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.42-2.08vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.29-1.83vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.08-2.44vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-6.23vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University2.41-6.11vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.46-7.67vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.56-8.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.07Brown University2.855.8%1st Place
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8.07Dartmouth College2.907.4%1st Place
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7.1Harvard University3.058.9%1st Place
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12.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.542.2%1st Place
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10.44U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.174.5%1st Place
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9.17College of Charleston2.494.9%1st Place
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9.49Roger Williams University2.455.9%1st Place
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10.31U. S. Naval Academy2.254.9%1st Place
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9.43Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.2%1st Place
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8.29Stanford University2.616.6%1st Place
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7.13Yale University2.7310.3%1st Place
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9.92University of Pennsylvania2.424.5%1st Place
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11.17Connecticut College2.293.6%1st Place
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11.56Bowdoin College2.083.9%1st Place
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8.77St. Mary's College of Maryland2.656.2%1st Place
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9.89Georgetown University2.414.9%1st Place
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9.33Tulane University2.465.9%1st Place
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9.93Boston College2.564.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 23.2% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% |
| Noah Zittrer | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% |
| Gavin McJones | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% |
| Jack Egan | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% |
| Christopher Lukens | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 14.3% |
| Leo Boucher | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Scott Mais | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% |
| Cameron Giblin | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.