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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+11.90vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.73+5.09vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+6.00vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.61+4.25vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.25+5.32vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.05+1.41vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.29+3.78vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.45+1.14vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.41+1.03vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+0.53vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.90-2.81vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-2.71vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.46-3.75vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston2.49-4.98vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.85-6.69vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.56-5.74vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.42-7.22vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.08-6.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.542.6%1st Place
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7.09Yale University2.739.2%1st Place
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9.0St. Mary's College of Maryland2.655.4%1st Place
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8.25Stanford University2.616.4%1st Place
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10.32U. S. Naval Academy2.254.9%1st Place
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7.41Harvard University3.059.2%1st Place
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10.78Connecticut College2.294.2%1st Place
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9.14Roger Williams University2.456.5%1st Place
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10.03Georgetown University2.414.9%1st Place
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10.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.173.7%1st Place
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8.19Dartmouth College2.906.7%1st Place
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9.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.5%1st Place
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9.25Tulane University2.465.8%1st Place
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9.02College of Charleston2.495.8%1st Place
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8.31Brown University2.856.2%1st Place
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10.26Boston College2.564.4%1st Place
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9.78University of Pennsylvania2.424.7%1st Place
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11.46Bowdoin College2.083.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 24.4% |
| Jack Egan | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Leo Boucher | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Gavin McJones | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| Scott Mais | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% |
| Cameron Giblin | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% |
| Christopher Lukens | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 12.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.