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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+7.57vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+5.86vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.75+5.16vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.18+2.21vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+4.49vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.91+1.40vs Predicted
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72.13+5.91vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.42-0.04vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.40+1.11vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.86vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.75-1.88vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.92-0.29vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.68-5.11vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.21-1.22vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.38-5.59vs Predicted
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16Stanford University2.55-8.15vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania1.90-5.41vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-5.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.57U. S. Naval Academy2.605.9%1st Place
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7.86U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.4%1st Place
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8.16Dartmouth College2.757.8%1st Place
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6.21Harvard University3.1810.7%1st Place
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9.49Bowdoin College2.385.2%1st Place
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7.4Brown University2.918.2%1st Place
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12.912.132.5%1st Place
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7.96Yale University2.427.5%1st Place
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10.11Boston College2.404.4%1st Place
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9.14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.574.5%1st Place
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9.12Georgetown University2.755.1%1st Place
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11.71Connecticut College1.923.0%1st Place
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7.89Roger Williams University2.687.7%1st Place
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12.78Tulane University2.212.4%1st Place
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9.41College of Charleston2.385.0%1st Place
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7.85Stanford University2.557.4%1st Place
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11.59University of Pennsylvania1.903.0%1st Place
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12.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.552.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 10.7% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Dana Haig | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 19.3% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 20.2% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Javier Garcon | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 19.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.