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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+5.24vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+6.77vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.91+4.39vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.42+4.20vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.68+3.10vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.75+2.18vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.38+2.42vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.40+1.97vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.06vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.75-1.29vs Predicted
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11Stanford University2.55-2.95vs Predicted
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122.13+0.69vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.21-0.28vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.90-2.34vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-2.17vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.38-6.51vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.92-5.24vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-10.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.24Harvard University3.1810.4%1st Place
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8.77U. S. Naval Academy2.605.7%1st Place
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7.39Brown University2.918.2%1st Place
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8.2Yale University2.426.9%1st Place
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8.1Roger Williams University2.687.5%1st Place
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8.18Dartmouth College2.757.1%1st Place
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9.42Bowdoin College2.385.1%1st Place
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9.97Boston College2.405.1%1st Place
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8.94St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.3%1st Place
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8.71Georgetown University2.756.2%1st Place
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8.05Stanford University2.557.3%1st Place
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12.692.132.5%1st Place
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12.72Tulane University2.212.5%1st Place
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11.66University of Pennsylvania1.902.6%1st Place
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12.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.551.8%1st Place
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9.49College of Charleston2.384.8%1st Place
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11.76Connecticut College1.922.6%1st Place
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7.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.487.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 10.4% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Carmen Cowles | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| Dana Haig | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 19.2% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 19.4% |
| Javier Garcon | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 10.2% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 17.3% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% |
| CJ Mckenna | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.7% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.