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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.75+7.87vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.38+7.33vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.18+3.24vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.38+5.68vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.75+3.15vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.56vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.91+0.36vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.42+0.06vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.55-1.00vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.68-2.08vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.92+0.79vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.40-1.80vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-4.99vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-5.05vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.21-2.09vs Predicted
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162.13-3.38vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-4.16vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.90-6.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.87Georgetown University2.756.1%1st Place
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9.33Bowdoin College2.385.4%1st Place
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6.24Harvard University3.1812.2%1st Place
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9.68College of Charleston2.384.7%1st Place
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8.15Dartmouth College2.756.7%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Naval Academy2.605.8%1st Place
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7.36Brown University2.918.2%1st Place
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8.06Yale University2.427.3%1st Place
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8.0Stanford University2.557.0%1st Place
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7.92Roger Williams University2.687.5%1st Place
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11.79Connecticut College1.922.5%1st Place
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10.2Boston College2.404.0%1st Place
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8.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.486.7%1st Place
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8.95St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.5%1st Place
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12.91Tulane University2.212.4%1st Place
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12.622.132.8%1st Place
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12.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.552.3%1st Place
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11.51University of Pennsylvania1.903.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| CJ Mckenna | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 11.6% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 19.6% |
| Dana Haig | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 18.3% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 18.9% |
| Javier Garcon | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.