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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+5.15vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.38+7.30vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+5.58vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.91+3.37vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.42+3.21vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.75+2.37vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.92vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.55+0.09vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.75-0.09vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.40+0.17vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.68-3.01vs Predicted
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122.13+0.78vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-5.15vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston2.38-4.28vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.77-2.61vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.92-4.02vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.77-5.48vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-5.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.15Harvard University3.1811.0%1st Place
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9.3Bowdoin College2.385.1%1st Place
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8.58U. S. Naval Academy2.606.2%1st Place
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7.37Brown University2.917.2%1st Place
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8.21Yale University2.426.8%1st Place
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8.37Dartmouth College2.756.2%1st Place
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8.92St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.5%1st Place
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8.09Stanford University2.557.0%1st Place
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8.91Georgetown University2.756.2%1st Place
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10.17Boston College2.404.0%1st Place
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7.99Roger Williams University2.687.7%1st Place
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12.782.132.3%1st Place
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7.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.5%1st Place
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9.72College of Charleston2.384.0%1st Place
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12.39University of Pennsylvania1.772.7%1st Place
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11.98Connecticut College1.922.4%1st Place
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11.52Tulane University1.773.5%1st Place
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12.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.552.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 11.0% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Carmen Cowles | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Dana Haig | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 17.7% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% |
| Sofia Segalla | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 15.5% |
| CJ Mckenna | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.7% |
| Asher Zittrer | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 19.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.