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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.38+8.31vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.42+6.06vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.91+4.51vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.18+2.34vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+2.87vs Predicted
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62.13+6.49vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.75+1.24vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.40+2.24vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.55-0.74vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-1.14vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.68-3.03vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.75-2.98vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-4.08vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-1.20vs Predicted
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15Tulane University1.77-3.39vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.38-6.47vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.92-5.09vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.77-5.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.31Bowdoin College2.385.7%1st Place
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8.06Yale University2.427.0%1st Place
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7.51Brown University2.918.4%1st Place
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6.34Harvard University3.1810.8%1st Place
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7.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.1%1st Place
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12.492.133.3%1st Place
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8.24Dartmouth College2.757.5%1st Place
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10.24Boston College2.403.2%1st Place
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8.26Stanford University2.555.6%1st Place
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8.86U. S. Naval Academy2.605.5%1st Place
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7.97Roger Williams University2.686.7%1st Place
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9.02Georgetown University2.755.3%1st Place
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8.92St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.9%1st Place
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12.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.552.0%1st Place
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11.61Tulane University1.772.9%1st Place
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9.53College of Charleston2.385.3%1st Place
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11.91Connecticut College1.923.5%1st Place
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12.08University of Pennsylvania1.773.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 8.4% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Justin Callahan | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Dana Haig | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 17.6% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% |
| Wiley Rogers | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 21.2% |
| Asher Zittrer | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.8% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 12.6% |
| Sofia Segalla | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.